| Action | Date | Market | Side | Price | Fair % | Upside % | Confidence | Deadline | Days | Paper $ | Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | YES | 0.32 | 85.0% | 166% | High | 2026-06-25 | 8 | 500 | Backers reported more than 1.5M signatures versus roughly 870k required; multiple credible reports say the measure has enough signatures to head to the November ballot. Still aw... | open |
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | 0.0645 | 7.0% | Medium | 2026-06-30 | 13 | Current reporting shows diplomatic activity and US/Russia proposal discussion, but not an official Ukrainian agreement to a US-backed framework. Price around 6% is plausible rat... | open | |||
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | 0.3925 | Low | 2026-06-30 | 14 | Strong candidate for automated map-monitoring, but not yet a probability trade until the system can ingest/compare ISW map changes or reliable frontline geodata. | open | ||||
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | 0.115 | 16.0% | Low | 2026-06-30 | 13 | Reporting/background indicates election timing pressure and talk of late-June/July elections, but also that budget passage reduced early-election triggers. Need live official Kn... | open | |||
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.1805 | 22.0% | Medium | 2026-09-20 | 95 | Recent Berlin polling reported CDU 22%, AfD 18%, Greens 17%, Left 15%, SPD 14%. AfD has a plausible path but is not current favorite; market price around 18% is plausible. | open | |||
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.515 | 57.0% | Medium | 2026-10-04 | 109 | Recent Reuters-reported polling has Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro after earlier tighter polls. That supports Lula as slight favorite, but not enough for a 10pp edge versus 51.5%. | open | |||
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.8545 | 7.0% | Medium | 2026-10-04 | 109 | Available polling/news emphasis is on Lula versus Flavio Bolsonaro; Renan Santos appears materially less central in the current national race. NO may be directionally attractive... | open | |||
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.2545 | 30.0% | Medium | 2026-10-04 | 109 | Recent Reuters reporting says Lula has widened a lead over Flavio after earlier Datafolha showed a statistical tie. Current 25% win probability is not obviously mispriced enough... | open | |||
| SKIP | 2026-06-16 | Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.12 | 10.0% | Medium | 2026-08-06 | 50 | A listed Targoz poll shows Jerri Green 14%, Carnita Atwater 8%, and 62% undecided. Atwater at 12% is plausible; no clear edge. | open | |||
| SKIP | 2026-06-16 | Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.165 | 15.0% | Medium | 2026-08-11 | 55 | Lindell is a declared candidate in a crowded GOP primary. Current public reporting emphasizes notoriety and uncertainty rather than evidence of primary dominance. No tradeable e... | open |
| Priority | Route | Market | YES | NO | Days | Liquidity | Flags | Hit Types | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | 0.064 | 0.936 | 13 | 22180.37681 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open | |
| 28 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | 0.315 | 0.685 | 8 | 22696.576 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure | open | |
| 28 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | 0.3435 | 0.6565 | 14 | 10591.73134 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open | |
| 27 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.515 | 0.485 | 109 | 225632.1268 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info | open | |
| 27 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1455 | 0.8545 | 109 | 195672.81257 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info | open | |
| 27 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.2545 | 0.7455 | 109 | 193226.0499 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info | open | |
| 27 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? | 0.32 | 0.68 | 13 | 1372.0143 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info | open | |
| 26 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 13 | 27172.4126 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open | |
| 25 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.22 | 0.78 | 13 | 1100.5334 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open | |
| 25 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.2415 | 0.7585 | 55 | 2022.95356 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.515 | 0.485 | 109 | 6478899.156239966 | 225632.1268 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1455 | 0.8545 | 109 | 7075208.450604911 | 195672.81257 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.2545 | 0.7455 | 109 | 6649840.28583899 | 193226.0499 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? | 0.32 | 0.68 | 13 | 22758.950558999957 | 1372.0143 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | 0.57 | 0.43 | 13 | 75975.85108599997 | 46.6604 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | 0.064 | 0.936 | 13 | 121896.17759199972 | 22180.37681 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.321 | 0.679 | 55 | 16829.893275000002 | 556.91094 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | 0.23 | 0.77 | 109 | 75478.8887119997 | 29441.5441 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? | 0.919 | 0.081 | 34 | 10739.988499 | 2099.34674 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? | 0.098 | 0.902 | 34 | 53255.145215000215 | 2100.66692 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.295 | 0.705 | 13 | 17581.341439000003 | 996.7839 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.67 | 0.33 | 13 | 36166.878432000005 | 141.8771 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.22 | 0.78 | 13 | 21809.889115999995 | 1100.5334 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.2645 | 0.7355 | 55 | 13411.809421999997 | 770.6996 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.73 | 0.27 | 55 | 17322.345587 | 162.4657 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | 0.74 | 0.26 | 48 | 16024.004375000004 | 692.5302 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.795 | 0.205 | 50 | 35106.53846700023 | 1119.8399 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Kevin Lee McCants win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.2485 | 0.7515 | 50 | 10296.390000000001 | 650.55835 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Tim Cyr win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.096 | 0.904 | 50 | 12663.52489299999 | 1948.37576 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? | 0.3295 | 0.6705 | 76 | 12081.712801 | 929.23991 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.111 | 0.889 | 55 | 11447.252053999995 | 1049.34709 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.215 | 0.785 | 55 | 13252.186444000004 | 853.2251 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Chris Larson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.0795 | 0.9205 | 55 | 10195.330000000002 | 2703.01796 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.28 | 0.72 | 55 | 13266.597656999997 | 651.2413 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.652 | 0.348 | 48 | 10968.167972000007 | 45.90269 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Eric Hovde win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election? | 0.1885 | 0.8115 | 55 | 20994.682441 | 1736.283 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Sean Duffy win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election? | 0.1445 | 0.8555 | 55 | 36423.104957 | 1686.60191 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | 0.468 | 0.532 | 62 | 18661.713245999996 | 20.6217 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | 0.767 | 0.233 | 62 | 11862.154736999997 | 79.47311 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | 0.605 | 0.395 | 48 | 12724.103610999993 | 118.4855 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | 0.19 | 0.81 | 48 | 13112.497809 | 628.1725 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.2415 | 0.7585 | 55 | 134143.615218 | 2022.95356 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Patrick Knight win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.271 | 0.729 | 55 | 11674.037796 | 1458.51603 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.645 | 0.355 | 55 | 49599.73157000002 | 127.2133 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.295 | 0.705 | 55 | 63899.349505000006 | 85.1728 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Phil Parrish win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.223 | 0.777 | 55 | 24628.341084 | 124.83741 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Kristin Robbins win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.2155 | 0.7845 | 55 | 14401.861084000006 | 1872.02305 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 55 | 98581.70729499999 | 868.6667 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.625 | 0.375 | 43 | 119845.56504800002 | 480.2509 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.265 | 0.735 | 43 | 101292.13410700005 | 252.3118 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.85 | 0.15 | 43 | 83297.038759 | 1145.6002 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.56 | 0.44 | 43 | 85631.43435799994 | 260.6525 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.745 | 0.255 | 43 | 54903.66543899999 | 324.6526 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.225 | 0.775 | 43 | 84585.05922 | 237.1102 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 14 | Will Vesselin Dimitrov win the 2026 Fields Medal? | 0.52 | 0.48 | 43 | 537190.296803 | 10.4131 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | 0.05 | 0.95 | 13 | 137985.07222400012 | 22642.51774 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 115 | 3645532.9127329923 | 383940.0156 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 115 | 193817.3669259986 | 80055.9488 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.0545 | 0.9455 | 115 | 1988963.1568260016 | 73739.89151 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 0.0965 | 0.9035 | 115 | 550569.5504859979 | 69793.41884 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | 0.315 | 0.685 | 8 | 154450.99433999512 | 22696.576 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.245 | 0.755 | 110 | 61858.37245499996 | 17342.7861 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.58 | 0.42 | 110 | 59428.31453499998 | 16449.2713 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.185 | 0.815 | 110 | 70620.76309700013 | 25621.5237 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.1785 | 0.8215 | 95 | 2209901.013294995 | 33744.62215 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.069 | 0.931 | 95 | 301164.88708900014 | 22019.7044 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.205 | 0.795 | 95 | 22929.389832000004 | 25809.596 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.355 | 0.645 | 95 | 31987.218814999997 | 34431.3474 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.224 | 0.776 | 95 | 70759.63633499999 | 28629.45813 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.915 | 0.085 | 88 | 47249.478166000015 | 20439.5433 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? | 0.0715 | 0.9285 | 48 | 18997.241177 | 3811.48387 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | 0.166 | 0.834 | 95 | 1441.9785989999998 | 12395.62312 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | 0.3 | 0.7 | 95 | 1828.037184 | 21591.249 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | 0.0685 | 0.9315 | 95 | 6879.243775000002 | 16830.42936 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | 0.0645 | 0.9355 | 95 | 1784.0768529999996 | 14188.8891 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 95 | 16409.761056 | 8364.8947 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0545 | 0.9455 | 105 | 2394222.6417200025 | 59771.10755 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.59 | 0.41 | 105 | 4285657.397506989 | 92321.824 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 13 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.31 | 0.69 | 105 | 1326645.6049700025 | 60248.76049 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 12 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | 0.865 | 0.135 | 109 | 175994.93878699935 | 21422.4369 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 12 | Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | 0.0705 | 0.9295 | 109 | 58897.86990900005 | 25627.01672 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 12 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | 0.705 | 0.295 | 109 | 36448.287057000016 | 5197.6358 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 12 | Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 48 | 34358.27400899996 | 633.50395 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 12 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.725 | 0.275 | 88 | 91976.1183309999 | 28411.4784 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 12 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.185 | 0.815 | 88 | 96580.97649399989 | 48372.0912 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | 0.3435 | 0.6565 | 14 | 550266.8561270006 | 10591.73134 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | 0.79 | 0.21 | 106 | 80305.69890199996 | 57351.2039 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 13 | 350545.29085300263 | 27172.4126 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | 0.555 | 0.445 | 44 | 46232.15497199992 | 9503.3317 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 48 | 46484.84317300001 | 2779.5924 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 48 | 41869.50721099996 | 1631.96489 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | 0.715 | 0.285 | 48 | 146478.14199599985 | 2705.8064 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 105 | 24855.045911 | 1607.2568 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 44 | 21135.353809000004 | 4446.9687 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.155 | 0.845 | 62 | 3538.445174000001 | 9047.9133 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.32 | 0.68 | 62 | 56698.857462 | 991.8972 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.31 | 0.69 | 62 | 40903.621363999955 | 982.5095 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Adam Crum advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 62 | 6088.318429999998 | 7782.4892 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will James Parkin advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 62 | 1814.9340249999996 | 8725.5293 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Bernadette Wilson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.73 | 0.27 | 62 | 14322.272004999999 | 796.3733 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.355 | 0.645 | 62 | 27435.442118000017 | 1809.4137 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Bill Walker advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.51 | 0.49 | 62 | 199140.95104299995 | 98.6279 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive? | 0.131 | 0.869 | 75 | 19699.60945399999 | 1517.79929 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5? | 0.0795 | 0.9205 | 75 | 16964.089819999997 | 13379.63974 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 6? | 0.068 | 0.932 | 75 | 26563.563441 | 2838.94745 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | 0.245 | 0.755 | 108 | 7588.693327999998 | 12658.2509 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | 0.1125 | 0.8875 | 108 | 6030.265783000002 | 21227.00592 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | 0.156 | 0.844 | 108 | 13868.863985000002 | 20044.81182 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Nacionālā Apvienība (NA) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 108 | 4050.4352280000003 | 19691.6804 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | 0.295 | 0.705 | 108 | 6806.758117999999 | 29199.3694 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | 0.0805 | 0.9195 | 108 | 2283.3661509999997 | 28270.47071 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | 0.0505 | 0.9495 | 13 | 258305.6805410017 | 21463.63714 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 105 | 10694.087641 | 2847.72428 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 11 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 13 | 256843.19104800248 | 14019.63 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? | 0.719 | 0.281 | 13 | 16906.173423000015 | 512.54314 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? | 0.56 | 0.44 | 13 | 14676.755570999994 | 796.5734 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.062 | 0.938 | 48 | 48986.820202999996 | 3560.84961 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.4935 | 0.5065 | 48 | 10629.052278999998 | 53.98253 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.079 | 0.921 | 48 | 223251.67899800002 | 773.5777 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.069 | 0.931 | 48 | 10730.304289 | 1675.02457 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | 0.0985 | 0.9015 | 48 | 11638.032944 | 99.23234 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? | 0.475 | 0.525 | 62 | 17505.159997000013 | 60.9761 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | 0.915 | 0.085 | 62 | 136975.44162600004 | 2707.0144 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 62 | 500780.96186100005 | 37212.5202 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? | 0.0645 | 0.9355 | 48 | 20442.803002999994 | 1300.14758 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | 0.68 | 0.32 | 55 | 21678.015706999977 | 38.1272 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will David Hann be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1605 | 0.8395 | 55 | 22587.87626899997 | 550.12917 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.281 | 0.719 | 55 | 32995.58609799997 | 240.71046 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? | 0.9065 | 0.0935 | 62 | 39056.456221999964 | 883.6424 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? | 0.2685 | 0.7315 | 83 | 13485.377789000022 | 781.14425 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? | 0.141 | 0.859 | 55 | 17411.20068700029 | 2163.52413 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Melissa Bailey be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? | 0.0575 | 0.9425 | 83 | 1057.651501 | 11098.29531 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 83 | 22859.49454400001 | 727.8914 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? | 0.1065 | 0.8935 | 62 | 15832.707796000006 | 792.11524 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | 0.38 | 0.62 | 48 | 21098.601307999994 | 96.9551 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 10 | Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? | 0.68 | 0.32 | 55 | 21620.054881 | 95.6364 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | 0.058 | 0.942 | 13 | 197670.13829399922 | 11792.50305 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | 0.55 | 0.45 | 13 | 10281.356671999996 | 2539.3204 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 0.0585 | 0.9415 | 106 | 972966.3348120019 | 4208.36226 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | 0.072 | 0.928 | 13 | 164434.07767600025 | 8827.59607 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | 0.081 | 0.919 | 13 | 205003.14672500038 | 10542.33259 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | 0.1495 | 0.8505 | 13 | 514967.0669169995 | 8751.56832 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | 0.138 | 0.862 | 13 | 137145.0695930004 | 8771.90481 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | 0.915 | 0.085 | 13 | 57383.08632499996 | 8576.0144 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 106 | 169003.06683999984 | 404.4793 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? | 0.22 | 0.78 | 13 | 33894.98289799983 | 903.8147 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026? | 0.0555 | 0.9445 | 13 | 18033.040688000012 | 1372.7927 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? | 0.35 | 0.65 | 13 | 41153.847331000776 | 580.011 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? | 0.247 | 0.753 | 13 | 15224.276428000016 | 350.19575 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026? | 0.159 | 0.841 | 13 | 15389.912460999998 | 392.70513 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? | 0.2985 | 0.7015 | 13 | 15670.197934000014 | 812.77593 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? | 0.76 | 0.24 | 105 | 17484.29884800001 | 865.8015 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? | 0.172 | 0.828 | 13 | 19092.471389 | 429.63173 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? | 0.3 | 0.7 | 105 | 25687.13222300001 | 428.9325 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026? | 0.2535 | 0.7465 | 13 | 263767.5553950001 | 401.91959 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 0.585 | 0.415 | 105 | 51130.14945699994 | 35.0583 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? | 0.169 | 0.831 | 13 | 30196.51674299999 | 244.70494 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 0.15 | 0.85 | 105 | 79935.75627500012 | 327.839 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 0.425 | 0.575 | 105 | 57018.20723199997 | 6.7417 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? | 0.0505 | 0.9495 | 13 | 149884.40785199977 | 17048.01676 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 13 | 996353.3017859973 | 38717.8924 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 9 | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 13 | 918741.1172499999 | 34285.5291 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 8 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | 0.205 | 0.795 | 14 | 5710118.254417037 | 91538.2296 | deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 8 | Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | 0.405 | 0.595 | 45 | 239236.70202700002 | 74365.337 | deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 8 | Starmer out by August 31, 2026? | 0.585 | 0.415 | 45 | 11704.919097999998 | 16832.2958 | deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 8 | Starmer out by October 31, 2026? | 0.685 | 0.315 | 45 | 978.408338 | 12642.8629 | deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 8 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | 0.05 | 0.95 | 105 | 7046.8241940000025 | 10087.9082 | deadline, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 8 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? | 0.5 | 0.5 | 106 | 27734.412170999996 | 742.5918 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 7 | Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? | 0.7955 | 0.2045 | 13 | 22331.87521800002 | 72.89657 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 7 | Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? | 0.223 | 0.777 | 13 | 10494.169928999998 | 472.46638 | complex/procedural, deadline | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Netanyahu out by July 31? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 44 | 1565.259735 | 21443.3471 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? | 0.2755 | 0.7245 | 14 | 72081.97868199999 | 4261.25779 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? | 0.651 | 0.349 | 14 | 66577.8381699999 | 1118.00647 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? | 0.083 | 0.917 | 14 | 63856.91832499997 | 7696.19994 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 14 | 12685.168602 | 7838.0837 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 14 | 78730.85215800002 | 11897.77458 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? | 0.4195 | 0.5805 | 14 | 82460.5006409998 | 9524.74321 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? | 0.3875 | 0.6125 | 14 | 98467.17470600008 | 5711.28973 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 14 | 52126.751241999955 | 9780.4388 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 14 | 247585.0254450003 | 17399.1868 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? | 0.205 | 0.795 | 14 | 14542.874421000002 | 6124.7414 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 14 | 49774.57014499996 | 5755.7008 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 14 | 22852.229003999986 | 1689.7168 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.28 | 0.72 | 14 | 14717.452503000008 | 4939.2151 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.51 | 0.49 | 14 | 25667.766866999962 | 1016.5566 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.935 | 0.065 | 14 | 15905.696834999992 | 4501.3205 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? | 0.28 | 0.72 | 14 | 101697.76945400004 | 9774.5027 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? | 0.0655 | 0.9345 | 14 | 30318.242098999996 | 7322.54071 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? | 0.298 | 0.702 | 14 | 22062.528609000023 | 10380.68142 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? | 0.31 | 0.69 | 14 | 21052.61245700001 | 7449.0082 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | 0.1625 | 0.8375 | 14 | 1039313.3054889988 | 37562.97943 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? | 0.585 | 0.415 | 14 | 74840.61266800002 | 13455.5385 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 14 | 35256.387740000006 | 37587.7305 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 14 | 28499.906024 | 2711.297 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.9165 | 0.0835 | 14 | 1044.599021 | 6589.51044 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.76 | 0.24 | 14 | 17461.278746000004 | 877.5696 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? | 0.9275 | 0.0725 | 14 | 20538.951402000013 | 1038.91445 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? | 0.05 | 0.95 | 13 | 83120.96507400004 | 968.26588 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 13 | 61460.219317999974 | 10819.1757 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? | 0.3795 | 0.6205 | 14 | 31060.463794999963 | 3248.58558 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? | 0.1015 | 0.8985 | 14 | 16765.222336000003 | 2626.87289 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 14 | 17624.242870000005 | 1894.122 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 6 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 14 | 11348.627048000004 | 1330.2297 | deadline, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 5 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 0.933 | 0.067 | 13 | 2989849.4996759514 | 59656.67999 | deadline | NO | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ECB rate cut in 2026? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 197 | 28264.656982000015 | 1085.5677 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 9 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? | 0.0265 | 0.9735 | 13 | 42418.141687000054 | 6875.34687 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 109 | 12700939.247295877 | 486928.80147 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0065 | 0.9935 | 109 | 4526361.495538877 | 334255.03033 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0195 | 0.9805 | 109 | 5747920.636364947 | 281998.22168 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0075 | 0.9925 | 109 | 7533804.039425732 | 287426.08921 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 109 | 9611941.295771351 | 1055087.40007 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 109 | 9965919.636117874 | 1239401.68607 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0175 | 0.9825 | 109 | 4061203.078083995 | 255924.13692 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0155 | 0.9845 | 109 | 3678837.319485998 | 401497.49814 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0175 | 0.9825 | 109 | 3355461.0207249937 | 241670.71365 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0035 | 0.9965 | 109 | 3573125.3457829775 | 224371.5444 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 109 | 7423375.555096786 | 1310825.37284 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 109 | 4476665.425042823 | 1186717.82827 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0025 | 0.9975 | 109 | 1729027.379534016 | 353513.27949 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 109 | 1818818.5916740252 | 633065.4462 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | 0.0055 | 0.9945 | 13 | 1785567.301716015 | 111189.04596 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Another Canada election called by June 30? | 0.0055 | 0.9945 | 13 | 85000.5263819999 | 10642.89788 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | 0.0095 | 0.9905 | 13 | 167358.22187600017 | 6078.74207 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? | 0.0075 | 0.9925 | 13 | 14110.751216999995 | 3937.19049 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 9 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? | 0.008 | 0.992 | 13 | 171698.49198800014 | 8754.74781 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 8 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | 0.505 | 0.495 | 45 | 1865783.302582066 | 37117.0374 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info | YES | meme_or_religion | open | |
| 8 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.435 | 0.565 | 139 | 1455252.7195900101 | 187216.4632 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.555 | 0.445 | 139 | 1290374.4346350105 | 175857.3239 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.825 | 0.175 | 139 | 3967588.573589963 | 323083.5186 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 139 | 3301734.7063749465 | 372523.7912 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | 0.265 | 0.735 | 197 | 99892.37679500002 | 611.8133 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | 0.81 | 0.19 | 139 | 39044.479338 | 18494.3496 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 139 | 32573.255648999984 | 11809.1587 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | 0.8135 | 0.1865 | 139 | 51340.411259000015 | 22010.86713 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | 0.1875 | 0.8125 | 139 | 65101.83209300004 | 20784.39092 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 197 | 72334.04413100003 | 16582.7847 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 8 | Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? | 0.131 | 0.869 | 197 | 19081.505272999988 | 13892.99048 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? | 0.0365 | 0.9635 | 44 | 942299.4341899994 | 12932.54214 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? | 0.004 | 0.996 | 13 | 39507.69299199999 | 10570.77923 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | 0.026 | 0.974 | 13 | 255974.82696799948 | 13810.21164 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | 0.0035 | 0.9965 | 13 | 406988.58004400186 | 88581.65516 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | 0.111 | 0.889 | 197 | 58280.775179 | 20521.02983 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? | 0.195 | 0.805 | 197 | 13288.077969 | 2236.8575 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? | 0.55 | 0.45 | 197 | 13284.85596600001 | 4768.9109 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | 0.1075 | 0.8925 | 197 | 441809.50689499965 | 70298.02379 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Obama arrested before 2027? | 0.0685 | 0.9315 | 197 | 10770.662305000002 | 18987.86372 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? | 0.0785 | 0.9215 | 197 | 12611.992811999995 | 9747.10794 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | 0.23 | 0.77 | 197 | 51871.109487000045 | 18441.4205 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? | 0.11 | 0.89 | 197 | 16771.61726700001 | 2963.7115 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? | 0.2 | 0.8 | 197 | 56310.05050799997 | 3873.6063 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? | 0.168 | 0.832 | 197 | 32127.444037000012 | 3034.42493 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 317 | 804072.0188479989 | 110797.4818 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 317 | 727234.7004349988 | 173251.7121 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.255 | 0.745 | 317 | 1125269.9260099973 | 159262.6132 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.205 | 0.795 | 317 | 936983.949210023 | 120153.9036 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | 0.2035 | 0.7965 | 197 | 2292165.3607609104 | 14556.73051 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | 0.029 | 0.971 | 13 | 265930.7742359989 | 35996.19539 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Will Donald Trump visit Indiana in 2026? | 0.395 | 0.605 | 197 | 288565.91859300004 | 77.3797 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 13 | 6527.23455699999 | 826.5426 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | 0.81 | 0.19 | 164 | 41779.295982000025 | 16768.5336 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | 0.195 | 0.805 | 164 | 31936.052977999996 | 20406.6347 | complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 7 | Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.2405 | 0.7595 | 83 | 2749.0623490000007 | 236.14832 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.954 | 0.046 | 83 | 13166.006174 | 8313.00402 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0955 | 0.9045 | 13 | 4563.940952999999 | 1622.35769 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Greg Lopez win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.167 | 0.833 | 13 | 3983.244451999999 | 1168.22359 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Will McBride win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0495 | 0.9505 | 13 | 29246.59564000002 | 2050.23154 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Will Mark Baisley win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.1965 | 0.8035 | 13 | 8329.519342999998 | 1091.3904 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Jason Clark win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.145 | 0.855 | 13 | 3073.5765949999995 | 1151.3429 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.64 | 0.36 | 13 | 9423.228436999994 | 703.3324 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Jon Gray-Ginsberg win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.052 | 0.948 | 13 | 7025.842694000001 | 1203.36482 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Bob Brinkerhoff win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | 0.156 | 0.844 | 13 | 3017.3242789999995 | 1004.62798 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election? | 0.412 | 0.588 | 55 | 4035.965468000001 | 139.78974 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Timothy Wilcox win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0705 | 0.9295 | 55 | 5969.135786999999 | 1722.1791 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election? | 0.61 | 0.39 | 55 | 9432.423191000002 | 356.27168 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Joy Eakins win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | 0.114 | 0.886 | 48 | 1124.676918 | 924.13139 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Charlotte O’Hara win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0675 | 0.9325 | 48 | 1511.0620929999998 | 971.35067 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | 0.154 | 0.846 | 48 | 2722.6825509999994 | 1707.43831 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Scott Schwab win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | 0.2025 | 0.7975 | 48 | 1192.9743469999996 | 792.78081 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0365 | 0.9635 | 48 | 25507.040088999995 | 2664.49085 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Will Stacy Rogers win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | 0.2415 | 0.7585 | 48 | 878.5670279999998 | 1096.41365 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Vicki Schmidt win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 48 | 1011.9458859999997 | 1116.19345 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.495 | 0.505 | 48 | 3568.2150019999995 | 25.1589 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.365 | 0.635 | 48 | 4032.370624000001 | 546.9459 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Marty Tuley win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 48 | 49601.78043000006 | 908.44147 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Will Gregory Stevens win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.3635 | 0.6365 | 83 | 813.043866 | 67.01696 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.56 | 0.44 | 83 | 5035.353948000002 | 61.2271 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.355 | 0.645 | 83 | 1860.1203130000001 | 32.8316 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? | 0.409 | 0.591 | 83 | 2433.6636470000003 | 57.98473 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Robert Raimondo win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? | 0.3525 | 0.6475 | 83 | 2326.092697 | 73.29713 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Ashley Kalus win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? | 0.338 | 0.662 | 83 | 2768.7667080000006 | 62.74227 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? | 0.54 | 0.46 | 83 | 2013.3207100000002 | 40.9598 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Jessica de la Cruz win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? | 0.3485 | 0.6515 | 83 | 1486.084358 | 42.60833 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will John Rose win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? | 0.067 | 0.933 | 50 | 2933.0233689999995 | 2275.46703 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.16 | 0.84 | 50 | 3060.737192000002 | 2119.9106 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Adam Kurtz win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.0805 | 0.9195 | 50 | 5591.201132000002 | 1714.15901 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Brian Shortsleeve win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? | 0.1555 | 0.8445 | 76 | 2559.345427 | 559.33381 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Michael Minogue win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? | 0.565 | 0.435 | 76 | 8038.1165599999995 | 75.6564 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.0065 | 0.9935 | 55 | 53358.39558999995 | 1267.44098 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 7 | Will Aly Richards win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.39 | 0.61 | 55 | 129.25 | 41.6295 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Esther Charlestin win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.273 | 0.727 | 55 | 9252.735913999999 | 786.94601 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.316 | 0.684 | 55 | 50.166662 | 105.54187 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election? | 0.6455 | 0.3545 | 55 | 9311.228175000004 | 289.74028 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Missy Hughes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.4135 | 0.5865 | 55 | 2804.350999999999 | 39.56126 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 7 | Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.059 | 0.941 | 55 | 4254.715996999999 | 1618.15289 | complex/procedural, deadline, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open |