| Action | Date | Market | Side | Price | Fair % | Upside % | Confidence | Deadline | Days | Paper $ | Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | YES | 0.32 | 85.0% | +166% | High | 2026-06-25 | 8 | 500 | Backers reported more than 1.5M signatures versus roughly 870k required; multiple credible reports say the measure has enough signatures to head to the November ballot. Still aw... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-19 | Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting? | YES | 0.13 | 26.0% | +100% | Medium | 2026-09-10 | 53 | 100 | The July 16 Reuters poll found about 70 percent of economists expected one more 2026 hike, probably September, while nearly 30 percent expected no further hike. ECB's June accou... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-06 | Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? | YES | 0.303 | 45.0% | +49% | Medium | 2026-08-04 | 28 | 150 | Current Polymarket pricing shows No Change around 30.3 cents and 25 bps decrease around 69 cents. Reuters reported the June cut to 14.25 percent, but subsequent minutes signaled... | open |
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | YES | 0.115 | 16.0% | +39% | Low | 2026-06-30 | 13 | 100 | Reporting/background indicates election timing pressure and talk of late-June/July elections but also that budget passage reduced early-election triggers. Need live official Kne... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-17 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | NO | 0.66 | 89.0% | +35% | High | 2026-08-31 | 45 | 500 | OpenAI released GPT-5.6 on July 9 and its official model catalog identifies GPT-5.6 as the current flagship. No official GPT-6 or successor announcement or launch date exists. E... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-19 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | YES | 0.36 | 48.0% | +33% | Medium | 2026-08-04 | 16 | 200 | A fresh independent Emerson College poll conducted July 25-27 after McMorrow's exit shows Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens 54% to 39%. That decisively fires the predeclared... | open |
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | YES | 0.1805 | 22.0% | +22% | Medium | 2026-09-20 | 95 | 250 | Recent Berlin polling reported CDU 22% AfD 18% Greens 17% Left 15% SPD 14%. AfD has a plausible path but is not current favorite; market price around 18% is plausible. | open |
| YES | 2026-07-04 | Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? | YES | 0.69 | 82.0% | +19% | Medium | 2026-12-31 | 180 | 250 | Reuters reports Vučić said he would resign within weeks and that this would prompt early presidential and parliamentary elections; AP notes he gave no exact resignation date or... | open |
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | YES | 0.2545 | 30.0% | +18% | Medium | 2026-10-04 | 109 | 100 | Recent Reuters reporting says Lula has widened a lead over Flavio after earlier Datafolha showed a statistical tie. Current 25% win probability is not obviously mispriced enough... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-17 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | NO | 0.9 | 97.5% | +8% | Medium | 2026-12-31 | 167 | 100 | USTR's official FTA list omits Pakistan and the 2026 Trade Policy Agenda describes Pakistan engagement as an agreement on reciprocal trade, not an enacted FTA. No qualifying leg... | open |
| Priority | Route | Market | YES | NO | Days | Liquidity | Flags | Hit Types | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECK | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.84 | 0.16 | 139 | 24002.4507 | resolution_integrity_check | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open |
| 33 | RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECK | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 78 | 97525.017 | resolution_integrity_check | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open |
| 29 | RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECK | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 139 | 8245.4674 | resolution_integrity_check | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open |
| 26 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | 0.21 | 0.79 | 139 | 13096.6155 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info | open | |
| 36 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | 0.555 | 0.445 | 75 | 21929.5666 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open | |
| 34 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 0.57 | 0.43 | 80 | 85778.7004 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open | |
| 25 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 18 | 37907.8782 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics | open | |
| 32 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 7 | 16595.4223 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open | |
| 25 | RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECK | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? | 0.17 | 0.83 | 139 | 8083.6356 | resolution_integrity_check | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open |
| 30 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.875 | 0.125 | 80 | 296438.0217 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | 0.11 | 0.89 | 108 | 2726.845601 | 32625.5464 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 24 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 78 | 41019.53862200001 | 32728.4008 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 0.715 | 0.285 | 32 | 7366058.391319005 | 504855.058 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 0.275 | 0.725 | 32 | 6837929.254254 | 511404.5345 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 0.185 | 0.815 | 139 | 1462662.7309169995 | 321508.7556 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.145 | 0.855 | 139 | 85112.686497 | 25555.2414 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.205 | 0.795 | 139 | 104425.93888299998 | 19937.6933 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.18 | 0.82 | 139 | 100416.804142 | 21546.6145 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.195 | 0.805 | 139 | 115160.959225 | 25015.7313 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.16 | 0.84 | 139 | 101165.83558199999 | 32148.203 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 23 | Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 139 | 50336.936664000015 | 31137.4526 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 78 | 302902.412146 | 97525.017 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | 0.555 | 0.445 | 75 | 231394.6434 | 21929.5666 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | 0.435 | 0.565 | 75 | 302931.3889859999 | 23199.6318 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | 0.72 | 0.28 | 32 | 290068.023792 | 12692.7786 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | 0.28 | 0.72 | 32 | 319618.627083 | 24069.248 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 21 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 0.205 | 0.795 | 139 | 349424.501668 | 126014.4896 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 139 | 13210.332052000002 | 10008.7811 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | 0.21 | 0.79 | 139 | 67456.002345 | 13096.6155 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027? | 0.098 | 0.902 | 139 | 4489.581545999999 | 13253.58973 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 139 | 17162.763155000004 | 9293.5082 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 139 | 19567.958633000002 | 9755.0158 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 139 | 22642.983139000004 | 1897.5822 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 139 | 6195.982855000002 | 9056.1715 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 139 | 2755.4656729999992 | 8977.5141 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 139 | 58142.955504000005 | 11125.2692 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 139 | 105402.66062600003 | 9662.9222 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 139 | 2166.116593 | 9518.0827 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 139 | 438.4660439999999 | 8892.0374 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? | 0.171 | 0.829 | 139 | 33214.649507 | 9962.32103 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | 0.0735 | 0.9265 | 139 | 252933.59042999998 | 78141.22921 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 139 | 292239.3119350001 | 22577.4579 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 139 | 328400.640395 | 9029.3769 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 21 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 139 | 439.889242 | 8245.4674 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 7 | 886.986665 | 16595.4223 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 8 | 230.00408499999998 | 16696.7651 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 23, 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 9 | 2264.8864160000003 | 17554.2574 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 24, 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 10 | 5678.855432 | 18682.5649 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 25, 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 11 | 51.16 | 17620.3151 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 26, 2026? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 12 | 509.34110999999996 | 18041.1222 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 27, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 13 | 185.84 | 18000.0937 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 28, 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 14 | 338.44 | 18370.7707 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 29, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 15 | 870.52 | 18802.9038 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 30, 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 16 | 189.98000000000002 | 18375.7643 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 31, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 17 | 563.076922 | 20009.531 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 0.57 | 0.43 | 80 | 197742.10199399997 | 85778.7004 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 0.44 | 0.56 | 80 | 178501.740444 | 103105.5728 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | 0.775 | 0.225 | 80 | 78957.02393499999 | 76179.4561 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | 0.225 | 0.775 | 80 | 93399.93935500001 | 104552.1467 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 0.515 | 0.485 | 80 | 369797.81510600005 | 91207.7165 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 0.495 | 0.505 | 80 | 404954.30176600016 | 85416.3155 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | 0.695 | 0.305 | 80 | 712881.7092810001 | 62548.6758 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | 0.295 | 0.705 | 80 | 424277.9115949999 | 76862.053 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 0.715 | 0.285 | 80 | 78984.88600700001 | 57017.7797 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 0.285 | 0.715 | 80 | 23729.294563999993 | 24708.0672 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | 0.93 | 0.07 | 80 | 40114.05973999999 | 39250.8882 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | 0.0775 | 0.9225 | 80 | 66814.02528300001 | 39304.44366 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 27 | 65568.008755 | 9090.0788 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.865 | 0.135 | 27 | 78158.88398100002 | 12596.3591 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.71 | 0.29 | 75 | 136163.401538 | 136552.709 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.235 | 0.765 | 75 | 132407.40129 | 117961.3757 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.685 | 0.315 | 117 | 32764.291028 | 130873.3744 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.275 | 0.725 | 117 | 24286.781273999997 | 108624.5718 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | 0.0565 | 0.9435 | 85 | 94774.31631499999 | 105726.19624 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 139 | 552.993103 | 10465.8405 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 139 | 17639.047322000002 | 8394.2871 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | 0.626 | 0.374 | 47 | 667378.6898359999 | 108254.88555 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 47 | 638012.3011209997 | 33804.8534 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 47 | 479189.0503510001 | 37306.7886 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 47 | 259210.065794 | 45561.56147 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 7 | 3087.088985 | 16976.5337 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 8 | 3171.922727 | 16899.3956 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 10 | 3174.1269469999997 | 19579.2849 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 11 | 3310.305183 | 19945.3443 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 12 | 3369.213454 | 18893.1077 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 13 | 3330.213795 | 19639.3356 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 14 | 4564.216673 | 21036.676 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 15 | 3851.689359 | 20907.0329 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 16 | 4772.951041 | 20314.302 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 17 | 4104.648155000001 | 23231.6878 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | 0.145 | 0.855 | 146 | 260578.35127200006 | 61703.8917 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.0845 | 0.9155 | 139 | 202092.08425100008 | 12279.6596 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.391 | 0.609 | 139 | 531835.292091 | 7505.12089 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.236 | 0.764 | 139 | 1368888.8139630002 | 5758.31455 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.1395 | 0.8605 | 139 | 427272.04073599994 | 10521.70297 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.0595 | 0.9405 | 139 | 2407941.560183001 | 4542.03171 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0.1 | 0.9 | 166 | 4604.329944000001 | 25238.305 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | 0.615 | 0.385 | 166 | 12250.181406 | 63361.0741 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0.215 | 0.785 | 166 | 7480.445599 | 37459.7059 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 78 | 845170.6361260002 | 65022.8289 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 78 | 16103.862800000003 | 33898.2548 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | 0.194 | 0.806 | 139 | 115357.710478 | 18768.81227 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 139 | 80181.877037 | 6033.7139 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.11 | 0.89 | 17 | 9359.464162000002 | 10495.9248 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 17 | 12980.408431 | 11894.8148 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 17 | 12207.355160999998 | 11759.4936 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 17 | 8554.055109 | 10087.279 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.11 | 0.89 | 17 | 11208.378617999997 | 10431.9225 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 17 | 2619.310637 | 8715.1332 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 17 | 2594.788705 | 9045.6778 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 139 | 120939.52834900003 | 21764.0908 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? | 0.682 | 0.318 | 139 | 26929.694685 | 35709.16756 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%? | 0.1285 | 0.8715 | 139 | 29823.34206 | 1745.82919 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 0.23 | 0.77 | 47 | 162870.900278 | 26645.0054 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 139 | 24636504.752773978 | 784579.0267 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.425 | 0.575 | 139 | 12375.408256 | 3427.6237 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.0755 | 0.9245 | 139 | 6962.189503999999 | 15965.89609 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | 0.32 | 0.68 | 139 | 72616.6004 | 44844.4974 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? | 0.0645 | 0.9355 | 139 | 9602.108326999998 | 16922.81818 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | 0.123 | 0.877 | 139 | 131441.284401 | 47675.5475 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? | 0.285 | 0.715 | 139 | 18168.483112 | 2133.3025 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 139 | 6725.554055 | 8772.6227 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? | 0.23 | 0.77 | 139 | 21642.061943000004 | 5132.3533 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 139 | 2821.1444579999998 | 11748.7128 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? | 0.1115 | 0.8885 | 139 | 39428.035381999995 | 10766.77715 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 139 | 3218.35564 | 14328.9135 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 0.915 | 0.085 | 17 | 1705623.1319360002 | 80279.2878 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 0.785 | 0.215 | 47 | 59723.21912499998 | 39886.7927 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 0.725 | 0.275 | 78 | 49277.55243 | 55345.4666 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.265 | 0.735 | 139 | 2131583.652119999 | 96651.5351 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 139 | 2117008.344315 | 107601.5369 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 139 | 184618.03332700007 | 53320.9568 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.145 | 0.855 | 81 | 13575.607526000002 | 19872.6188 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 81 | 32609.021225999993 | 19946.2438 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.116 | 0.884 | 81 | 24749.916265000003 | 14472.50324 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.1175 | 0.8825 | 81 | 40226.683099 | 23513.11587 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.087 | 0.913 | 81 | 15669.157017999994 | 16728.99969 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.067 | 0.933 | 81 | 11450.167775000002 | 15521.50061 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | 0.69 | 0.31 | 139 | 9149.213557 | 12275.5434 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | 0.235 | 0.765 | 139 | 1102.579521 | 6632.2226 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? | 0.465 | 0.535 | 139 | 16214.150882000002 | 4295.621 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Yariv Levin win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? | 0.21 | 0.79 | 139 | 3290.1141050000006 | 9507.149 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election? | 0.665 | 0.335 | 139 | 11794.859834 | 1931.9531 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? | 0.05 | 0.95 | 139 | 43297.57626100001 | 16167.00081 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? | 0.0635 | 0.9365 | 139 | 28171.256944000004 | 13081.10516 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | 0.128 | 0.872 | 139 | 37875.41711499999 | 9511.6524 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 0.555 | 0.445 | 139 | 156449.27080100004 | 65026.1119 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | 0.081 | 0.919 | 139 | 529271.090609 | 90827.24516 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | 0.445 | 0.555 | 139 | 2131543.9861740004 | 88880.2174 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | French election called by December 31, 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 139 | 2742.111618 | 10966.0942 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | 0.155 | 0.845 | 139 | 24753.180911000003 | 2419.8428 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 139 | 230521.55379900004 | 12269.7662 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 139 | 91594.782203 | 11812.6139 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026? | 0.48 | 0.52 | 139 | 60996.875160999996 | 42.364 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026? | 0.235 | 0.765 | 139 | 58661.88048299999 | 36.6551 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? | 0.17 | 0.83 | 139 | 9440.893475999997 | 8083.6356 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31? | 0.173 | 0.827 | 139 | 1840.56895 | 8278.8578 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? | 0.82 | 0.18 | 139 | 41480.941769000005 | 388.4918 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 0.495 | 0.505 | 78 | 2478313.1667010006 | 93776.9571 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 0.375 | 0.625 | 78 | 1806471.3856329995 | 95306.7558 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 0.125 | 0.875 | 78 | 2178399.3546019997 | 100000.1274 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.875 | 0.125 | 80 | 5250046.575917003 | 296438.0217 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 80 | 4127605.3034939994 | 318101.9634 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 0.605 | 0.395 | 139 | 42254.30192599999 | 68416.0231 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.525 | 0.475 | 78 | 2261235.3588219997 | 156124.6579 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.475 | 0.525 | 78 | 1582794.4441519994 | 150878.4029 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.9495 | 0.0505 | 80 | 7384.665887000001 | 11444.33148 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.905 | 0.095 | 80 | 93639.69710200002 | 21489.7264 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.925 | 0.075 | 80 | 16019.153319000003 | 11753.6527 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.925 | 0.075 | 80 | 5494.325258999999 | 13807.4622 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.071 | 0.929 | 80 | 9835.525083 | 10700.25859 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.91 | 0.09 | 80 | 16806.130165999995 | 12963.1436 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.057 | 0.943 | 80 | 8468.705102000009 | 14570.19474 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.053 | 0.947 | 80 | 7515.210787 | 12179.2604 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 17 | 830399.3815910001 | 61611.0886 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 0.375 | 0.625 | 47 | 299067.15875 | 103891.7118 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.255 | 0.745 | 81 | 171485.22084200007 | 17351.3737 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 81 | 40915.64093599999 | 28203.3246 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 81 | 50972.24646899999 | 26721.438 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 81 | 119250.009171 | 32026.3972 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.145 | 0.855 | 81 | 224964.631313 | 31453.5171 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.0775 | 0.9225 | 81 | 592630.00533 | 21841.1665 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 0.665 | 0.335 | 81 | 810343.9568050001 | 94419.7945 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 0.336 | 0.664 | 81 | 1335584.1075729998 | 131676.68888 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.235 | 0.765 | 81 | 31186.669831000003 | 11773.5523 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Alaska have the closest Senate race in 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 81 | 5230.610264999999 | 9777.2984 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026? | 0.23 | 0.77 | 81 | 786.2188649999998 | 9535.3052 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Nebraska have the closest Senate race in 2026? | 0.0515 | 0.9485 | 81 | 275.35117199999996 | 9371.68831 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Iowa have the closest Senate race in 2026? | 0.176 | 0.824 | 81 | 2626.673861 | 9432.20116 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026? | 0.0645 | 0.9355 | 81 | 2345.7066649999997 | 9501.64588 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026? | 0.1385 | 0.8615 | 81 | 5040.2244169999985 | 9524.78452 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Kansas have the closest Governor's race in 2026? | 0.0985 | 0.9015 | 81 | 1576.33 | 10176.40563 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Wisconsin have the closest Governor's race in 2026? | 0.126 | 0.874 | 81 | 970.265651 | 9357.85911 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Ohio have the closest Governor's race in 2026? | 0.1085 | 0.8915 | 81 | 416.95980499999996 | 9282.91486 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Iowa have the closest Governor's race in 2026? | 0.1175 | 0.8825 | 81 | 1479.7700000000002 | 9565.93518 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Nevada have the closest Governor's race in 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 81 | 1991.303254 | 10181.3919 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.058 | 0.942 | 81 | 423.50736800000004 | 9162.03674 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.148 | 0.852 | 81 | 5969.746850999999 | 8947.47421 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.0875 | 0.9125 | 81 | 6051.580135 | 8943.23013 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.0535 | 0.9465 | 81 | 1074.4610229999998 | 9076.78624 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.0865 | 0.9135 | 81 | 2012.2598100000002 | 8949.63547 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.0875 | 0.9125 | 81 | 825.9998370000001 | 8801.23174 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.1635 | 0.8365 | 81 | 2109.260705 | 9106.70917 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | 0.33 | 0.67 | 17 | 100040.12586299998 | 35427.3312 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | 0.545 | 0.455 | 47 | 4987.720811000001 | 45493.2985 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? | 0.23 | 0.77 | 8 | 5361.295563000001 | 6435.1917 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 17 | 153155.32388599997 | 40804.7576 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? | 0.725 | 0.275 | 139 | 26027.527945000005 | 3468.0469 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Jonatan Vseviov be the next President of Estonia? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 139 | 324.4704 | 10114.9032 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 16 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 139 | 3212769.319997001 | 71985.19868 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 139 | 100550.42176599996 | 16288.0246 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 139 | 215939.10864 | 15200.1425 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? | 0.195 | 0.805 | 139 | 40515.98738400001 | 10450.1438 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 139 | 73072.30694299997 | 21649.5609 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 139 | 45810.574948 | 15422.4028 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 139 | 14510.632110999995 | 14074.2494 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.05 | 0.95 | 139 | 10328.044850999999 | 13408.7393 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 139 | 17298.062198000003 | 13406.5714 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 139 | 54965.019570000004 | 23797.8828 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 139 | 3356.4757399999994 | 13981.655 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 139 | 19298.364079 | 19324.4138 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 139 | 8534.939115000001 | 16713.3804 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 139 | 3640.4737150000005 | 12937.3176 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 139 | 3164.3127940000004 | 11503.9536 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.0545 | 0.9455 | 139 | 15630.662795 | 13473.97405 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 139 | 9680.794751999996 | 14006.3179 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 139 | 12730.985272 | 15415.2008 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.05 | 0.95 | 139 | 5270.279872999999 | 14121.1826 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.0615 | 0.9385 | 139 | 59361.277802999975 | 22945.43354 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 139 | 31240.38027999999 | 16178.6967 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.0525 | 0.9475 | 139 | 10024.147343999999 | 16167.4218 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.0555 | 0.9445 | 139 | 6064.0401900000015 | 11785.97546 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 139 | 7284.117048000001 | 15770.6536 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 139 | 8197.645197 | 11593.8006 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 139 | 3234.386646 | 12991.2357 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.0555 | 0.9445 | 139 | 15430.351979 | 11667.00231 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Matt Gaetz announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 139 | 2964.353959 | 11928.3877 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 139 | 27214.763761000006 | 14452.7734 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.0505 | 0.9495 | 139 | 34984.625456999995 | 18399.52513 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 139 | 19727.068281000003 | 11363.9257 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 139 | 16903.455316999996 | 16297.3228 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 139 | 20373.852606999997 | 15413.0138 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.0685 | 0.9315 | 139 | 8138.324812999998 | 14907.86743 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.0835 | 0.9165 | 139 | 1866.8532459999997 | 11455.08262 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 81 | 268655.556141 | 54332.1562 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | 0.8305 | 0.1695 | 81 | 823642.552286 | 81356.77846 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Trump out as President before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 139 | 10631920.852939993 | 506344.4308 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 139 | 79101.021804 | 55858.4404 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026? | 0.0515 | 0.9485 | 7 | 3715.2093919999998 | 18508.74943 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 23, 2026? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 9 | 1695.477577 | 20379.4738 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026? | 0.0505 | 0.9495 | 10 | 1395.0993609999998 | 18241.91754 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 25, 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 11 | 2130.521509 | 17300.9592 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 26, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 12 | 350 | 16382.112 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 27, 2026? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 13 | 1435.372221 | 16627.2065 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 28, 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 14 | 1193.3557130000002 | 16937.1001 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 29, 2026? | 0.064 | 0.936 | 15 | 1315.27 | 15697.70732 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 30, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 16 | 1992.1247600000002 | 14329.9175 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 31, 2026? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 17 | 3453.8038189999997 | 15567.2401 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 0.465 | 0.535 | 139 | 8035508.829809 | 291534.1888 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 139 | 2118159.6493339995 | 104125.6794 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | 0.013 | 0.987 | 17 | 3945292.002539 | 387055.77324 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 17 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | 0.045 | 0.955 | 47 | 1033650.0437050001 | 263588.6505 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 16 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 32 | 4459680.5691249985 | 676508.81669 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 16 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 0.0125 | 0.9875 | 32 | 8349769.172773003 | 783014.16663 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 32 | 4901769.727884003 | 1030100.36156 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | 0.0145 | 0.9855 | 75 | 54038.424585999994 | 34283.56567 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | 0.01 | 0.99 | 75 | 34346.935456 | 28829.17111 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 75 | 26439.393363000003 | 26611.11432 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | 0.9775 | 0.0225 | 37 | 274298.89389000006 | 78023.52098 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 32 | 72861.897758 | 24651.66383 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 14 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | 0.28 | 0.72 | -241 | 823535.4531319997 | 191151.0713 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 14 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | 0.425 | 0.575 | -241 | 446075.264362 | 67979.6754 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 14 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? | 0.235 | 0.765 | 139 | 3362.915131 | 1241.3431 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 14 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 139 | 6701.620545000001 | 2596.501 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 14 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027? | 0.17 | 0.83 | 139 | 490.39652 | 1725.3642 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 13 | Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.855 | 0.145 | 320 | 25112.192754000007 | 9439.9106 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.137 | 0.863 | 320 | 20042.538384999996 | 9389.72641 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.805 | 0.195 | 320 | 13477.563645999999 | 10164.8167 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.18 | 0.82 | 320 | 4682.744309000001 | 8879.2698 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.315 | 0.685 | 320 | 10188.690496000003 | 2704.8328 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.285 | 0.715 | 320 | 11156.325449 | 3453.8354 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 320 | 1823.5950109999999 | 10271.7913 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 320 | 9448.001723 | 8902.1331 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0565 | 0.9435 | 320 | 5018.443306 | 9110.17509 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.067 | 0.933 | 320 | 3465.7803860000004 | 9119.257 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.15 | 0.85 | 320 | 8494.139897 | 9043.5851 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 320 | 3340.978429 | 8810.6716 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.365 | 0.635 | 320 | 13623.263239999998 | 1166.6125 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 320 | 1595.748049 | 8327.4303 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.895 | 0.105 | 320 | 6973.311292 | 10497.9358 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 320 | 4316.5394289999995 | 8712.2574 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 320 | 3101.855338 | 9150.6864 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 320 | 7903.232467999999 | 10152.1658 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.1 | 0.9 | 320 | 11251.570499 | 13471.7886 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 320 | 6130.261063000001 | 9631.0881 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 320 | 3108.6254430000004 | 8428.1779 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | 0.065 | 0.935 | -31 | 996550.5156910012 | 98803.9582 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | 0.085 | 0.915 | -111 | 1180653.6099 | 55931.2763 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | 0.165 | 0.835 | -111 | 105853.34750600002 | 18025.6967 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | 0.325 | 0.675 | -111 | 116751.05562099999 | 18140.3052 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 0.0025 | 0.9975 | 80 | 87498.01802600002 | 17246.75732 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 13 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.006 | 0.994 | 27 | 32121.309684000003 | 11810.01549 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.0135 | 0.9865 | 75 | 123343.51353100003 | 139925.23297 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.045 | 0.955 | 75 | 154843.11510100003 | 118245.2287 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.01 | 0.99 | 75 | 54414.622517 | 141290.063 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.0115 | 0.9885 | 117 | 21172.926733999997 | 112607.4025 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.0465 | 0.9535 | 117 | 32595.217713 | 111609.5108 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.0135 | 0.9865 | 117 | 19069.910482 | 102314.9753 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | 0.0155 | 0.9845 | 54 | 253171.01558099987 | 104992.40343 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? | 0.9625 | 0.0375 | 81 | 62883.62541799999 | 35811.83269 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Democratic Party win the WV-02 House seat? | 0.0245 | 0.9755 | 81 | 28190.812468999997 | 43030.47483 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | WHOOP IPO before 2027? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 139 | 2395.0527610000004 | 1933.0089 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 12 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 21% or more? | 0.057 | 0.943 | 320 | 205.32 | 8395.91058 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 12 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 18% or more? | 0.1 | 0.9 | 320 | 256.866665 | 10148.959 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 12 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 6% or more? | 0.05 | 0.95 | 320 | 155.010211 | 9902.1717 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | 0.0665 | 0.9335 | 351 | 2650874.8588729994 | 139360.77352 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | 0.9285 | 0.0715 | 351 | 1793960.2573749996 | 65021.06085 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? | 0.033 | 0.967 | 47 | 368728.33117499994 | 47221.09789 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 47 | 82193.159108 | 48088.39981 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? | 0.003 | 0.997 | 47 | 79794.941623 | 47920.53705 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? | 0.0075 | 0.9925 | 47 | 271229.897279 | 28266.17209 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 47 | 65471.693287 | 44809.94842 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? | 0.0025 | 0.9975 | 47 | 63312.510664 | 52411.06213 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026? | 0.0025 | 0.9975 | 47 | 63452.907307 | 41227.51375 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026? | 0.0035 | 0.9965 | 47 | 132972.68685299996 | 46803.0576 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 47 | 98128.754526 | 39384.03942 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 47 | 73476.756163 | 34660.27348 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? | 0.007 | 0.993 | 47 | 602374.431778 | 31766.60115 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026? | 0.045 | 0.955 | 9 | 2610.694102 | 18030.943 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 0 | 2354.2957860000006 | 11121.9738 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 16, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 2 | 1423.2680220000002 | 12602.3638 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 17, 2026? | 0.14 | 0.86 | 3 | 193.23131 | 10816.7761 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 18, 2026? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 4 | 237.989172 | 14238.952 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 19, 2026? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 5 | 2909.0171899999996 | 17018.3925 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 20, 2026? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 6 | 138.21875 | 15760.4069 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | too_near_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | 0.0645 | 0.9355 | 351 | 16710.876054 | 4812.94028 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | 0.0535 | 0.9465 | 351 | 27822.19212499999 | 11684.43049 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | 0.265 | 0.735 | 351 | 163423.71059200005 | 2143.8528 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | 0.545 | 0.455 | 351 | 142020.767711 | 5340.8282 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | 0.054 | 0.946 | 351 | 16613.213735 | 11946.03535 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 139 | 87644.35410999999 | 19417.48579 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.0055 | 0.9945 | 139 | 172865.10897400006 | 11305.66878 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.0065 | 0.9935 | 139 | 60980.14291699999 | 22684.68632 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.0135 | 0.9865 | 139 | 488729.79033399996 | 19006.31678 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.0115 | 0.9885 | 139 | 64232.57797300001 | 15783.67215 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 139 | 242762.182257 | 31014.67256 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.0055 | 0.9945 | 139 | 142649.918618 | 23708.62067 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.0065 | 0.9935 | 139 | 145909.09652999998 | 17673.78496 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 139 | 147920.55225700003 | 21816.40875 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 139 | 263032.2388990001 | 23230.33571 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0.048 | 0.952 | 166 | 1913.370223 | 68634.9656 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0.0325 | 0.9675 | 166 | 1208.0586500000002 | 53074.42093 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | 0.028 | 0.972 | 17 | 358633.155375 | 47935.9041 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026? | 0.0125 | 0.9875 | 17 | 107573.47671700001 | 61541.17744 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.0085 | 0.9915 | 17 | 642637.1814960002 | 89111.01064 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | 0.0235 | 0.9765 | 47 | 246568.85321800003 | 55634.53132 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? | 0.03 | 0.97 | 139 | 16989.798932000005 | 3012.25024 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? | 0.027 | 0.973 | 139 | 52419.99575399999 | 3757.10284 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? | 0.0265 | 0.9735 | 139 | 142229.30653799998 | 2852.80144 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 11 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? | 0.0255 | 0.9745 | 139 | 32392.447945000004 | 4460.16781 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open |