| Action | Date | Market | Side | Price | Fair % | Upside % | Confidence | Deadline | Days | Paper $ | Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | YES | 0.32 | 85.0% | +166% | High | 2026-06-25 | 8 | 500 | Backers reported more than 1.5M signatures versus roughly 870k required; multiple credible reports say the measure has enough signatures to head to the November ballot. Still aw... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-19 | Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting? | YES | 0.13 | 26.0% | +100% | Medium | 2026-09-10 | 53 | 100 | The July 16 Reuters poll found about 70 percent of economists expected one more 2026 hike, probably September, while nearly 30 percent expected no further hike. ECB's June accou... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-06 | Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? | YES | 0.303 | 45.0% | +49% | Medium | 2026-08-04 | 28 | 150 | Current Polymarket pricing shows No Change around 30.3 cents and 25 bps decrease around 69 cents. Reuters reported the June cut to 14.25 percent, but subsequent minutes signaled... | open |
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | YES | 0.115 | 16.0% | +39% | Low | 2026-06-30 | 13 | 100 | Reporting/background indicates election timing pressure and talk of late-June/July elections but also that budget passage reduced early-election triggers. Need live official Kne... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-17 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | NO | 0.66 | 89.0% | +35% | High | 2026-08-31 | 45 | 500 | OpenAI released GPT-5.6 on July 9 and its official model catalog identifies GPT-5.6 as the current flagship. No official GPT-6 or successor announcement or launch date exists. E... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-19 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | YES | 0.36 | 48.0% | +33% | Medium | 2026-08-04 | 16 | 200 | A fresh independent Emerson College poll conducted July 25-27 after McMorrow's exit shows Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens 54% to 39%. That decisively fires the predeclared... | open |
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | YES | 0.1805 | 22.0% | +22% | Medium | 2026-09-20 | 95 | 250 | Recent Berlin polling reported CDU 22% AfD 18% Greens 17% Left 15% SPD 14%. AfD has a plausible path but is not current favorite; market price around 18% is plausible. | open |
| YES | 2026-07-04 | Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? | YES | 0.69 | 82.0% | +19% | Medium | 2026-12-31 | 180 | 250 | Reuters reports Vučić said he would resign within weeks and that this would prompt early presidential and parliamentary elections; AP notes he gave no exact resignation date or... | open |
| YES | 2026-06-16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | YES | 0.2545 | 30.0% | +18% | Medium | 2026-10-04 | 109 | 100 | Recent Reuters reporting says Lula has widened a lead over Flavio after earlier Datafolha showed a statistical tie. Current 25% win probability is not obviously mispriced enough... | open |
| YES | 2026-07-17 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | NO | 0.9 | 97.5% | +8% | Medium | 2026-12-31 | 167 | 100 | USTR's official FTA list omits Pakistan and the 2026 Trade Policy Agenda describes Pakistan engagement as an agreement on reciprocal trade, not an enacted FTA. No qualifying leg... | open |
| Priority | Route | Market | YES | NO | Days | Liquidity | Flags | Hit Types | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECK | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 0.145 | 0.855 | 104 | 159813.7108 | resolution_integrity_check | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open |
| 29 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 104 | 10396.2775 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info | open | |
| 31 | RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECK | Will Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 8647.7114 | resolution_integrity_check | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open |
| 34 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | 0.16 | 0.84 | 82 | 54159.9117 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open | |
| 30 | RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECK | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 0.265 | 0.735 | 108 | 112784.7405 | resolution_integrity_check | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open |
| 34 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 0.545 | 0.455 | 45 | 110071.1608 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open | |
| 26 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September? | 0.315 | 0.685 | 12 | 44227.0899 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; local_info | open | |
| 35 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 104 | 23470.3473 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open | |
| 30 | RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECK | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.665 | 0.335 | 104 | 100879.0134 | resolution_integrity_check | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info | open |
| 34 | DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATE | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | 0.26 | 0.74 | 82 | 37444.5064 | official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 104 | 2767298.7062379997 | 257310.2972 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 24 | Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 104 | 129382.14466800002 | 25792.4923 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 24 | Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 104 | 153193.57755900003 | 30197.799 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 24 | Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 104 | 142310.423154 | 29939.7607 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 24 | Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 104 | 259630.295894 | 23470.3473 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 24 | Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 104 | 144733.671676 | 27942.7288 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 43 | 691766.6941399998 | 145053.7476 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 0.145 | 0.855 | 104 | 904131.4814360003 | 159813.7108 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | 0.435 | 0.565 | 82 | 5551.592619999999 | 27923.4488 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 82 | 14220.242826999998 | 48046.0326 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | 0.16 | 0.84 | 82 | 12116.03733 | 54159.9117 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | 0.26 | 0.74 | 82 | 14331.635952999999 | 37444.5064 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 182.86049300000002 | 8647.7114 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Bahrain join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.11 | 0.89 | 104 | 1426.7537979999997 | 8749.941 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.09 | 0.91 | 104 | 8495.506801 | 9120.6138 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Iraq join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 1551.37516 | 8664.9053 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Kuwait join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 104 | 2658.2912320000005 | 8942.0745 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Morocco join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 2586.016665 | 8762.1628 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Oman join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 104 | 1213.1613160000002 | 8792.2114 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Qatar join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.11 | 0.89 | 104 | 1948.5127420000001 | 8774.8522 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will the United Arab Emirates join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 104 | 20599.865899 | 9033.6802 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Yemen join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 104 | 120 | 8689.6616 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 104 | 13348.917548000003 | 10095.21355 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 104 | 70845.952483 | 12579.8626 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 104 | 22385.98289600001 | 14309.6317 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? | 0.14 | 0.86 | 104 | 19620.821414 | 11767.7232 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 104 | 22652.862717 | 10396.2775 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 104 | 6286.768046000001 | 9871.2654 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? | 0.1605 | 0.8395 | 104 | 60510.32426900001 | 4637.65703 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 104 | 105561.57695300004 | 1606.8268 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? | 0.1335 | 0.8665 | 104 | 34041.97875499999 | 3287.79688 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 104 | 5978.047584 | 9508.3274 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 104 | 408.53947300000004 | 8807.2051 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.0625 | 0.9375 | 104 | 685.5464190000001 | 8863.887 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.086 | 0.914 | 104 | 1455.9458799999998 | 9120.0459 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.0725 | 0.9275 | 104 | 1078.5771049999998 | 9191.7684 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.0675 | 0.9325 | 104 | 1127.6718520000002 | 10692.27151 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 104 | 4026.9723069999995 | 8966.9388 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 3320.1515839999997 | 9394.9025 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 294048.590137 | 24988.9788 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 22 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 104 | 332365.339637 | 1818.684 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 0.585 | 0.415 | 45 | 581701.556187 | 162445.4745 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 0.41 | 0.59 | 45 | 744447.6804850001 | 175114.7351 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | 0.705 | 0.295 | 45 | 848329.2078869999 | 87210.4373 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | 0.295 | 0.705 | 45 | 563569.335938 | 132180.9296 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 0.545 | 0.455 | 45 | 228160.318036 | 110071.1608 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 0.455 | 0.545 | 45 | 172723.541064 | 94451.0536 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 0.655 | 0.345 | 45 | 468285.76989100006 | 89105.3128 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 0.345 | 0.655 | 45 | 366404.80326699995 | 106311.2446 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 0.145 | 0.855 | 45 | 140702.71117900003 | 99516.6178 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 0.855 | 0.145 | 45 | 79892.43333999999 | 57792.4458 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | 0.925 | 0.075 | 45 | 58112.444282000004 | 52867.9303 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 45 | 28572.350950000004 | 93094.8342 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 0.675 | 0.325 | 45 | 115804.58407200001 | 53587.7614 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 0.325 | 0.675 | 45 | 71327.22769999997 | 77856.0811 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | 0.835 | 0.165 | 45 | 316131.38136099966 | 88066.2515 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | 0.155 | 0.845 | 45 | 276774.2584980001 | 57306.4839 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 104 | 585.52767 | 10877.1815 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 0.395 | 0.605 | 45 | 179380.21685899998 | 56472.0548 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 0.605 | 0.395 | 45 | 179333.25905900003 | 63960.097 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 0.925 | 0.075 | 45 | 54591.506786000005 | 52417.908 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 45 | 66392.68775799999 | 54991.8306 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | 0.93 | 0.07 | 45 | 53316.46433400001 | 49774.5955 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | 0.0675 | 0.9325 | 45 | 79498.664005 | 57044.92337 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.935 | 0.065 | 45 | 51044.10354300001 | 31744.7365 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 20 | Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 45 | 66626.757863 | 71535.2452 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.495 | 0.505 | 40 | 1934487.3087269966 | 502564.6706 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.505 | 0.495 | 40 | 1548806.852724 | 479745.9631 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.315 | 0.685 | 82 | 206261.84508099998 | 172089.8035 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.655 | 0.345 | 82 | 282618.30275000003 | 119864.8465 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? | 0.255 | 0.745 | 104 | 39323.62685099999 | 3243.52548 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | 0.7325 | 0.2675 | 104 | 126388.63103599999 | 17386.79324 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 81633.306104 | 17451.1993 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.153 | 0.847 | 104 | 1373432.4173250003 | 21047.44468 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.53 | 0.47 | 104 | 441027.5863689998 | 24559.0538 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.2745 | 0.7255 | 104 | 2413852.1383470003 | 24327.2913 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? | 0.845 | 0.155 | 46 | 19689.195440000003 | 48706.9613 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 46 | 22087.737462 | 49814.0702 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Republican Party win the IL-08 House seat? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 46 | 12026.759979 | 65775.8852 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing | NO | open | ||
| 19 | Will the Democratic Party win the IL-08 House seat? | 0.935 | 0.065 | 46 | 9791.137445 | 30549.0511 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 43 | 1668428.6008709993 | 88435.0802 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.225 | 0.775 | 104 | 2634166.5682260008 | 93345.1524 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 73 | 4727.336632 | 19226.7152 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | 0.8995 | 0.1005 | 12 | 1343362.992132 | 56181.10916 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? | 0.053 | 0.947 | 12 | 134729.189587 | 74531.7 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 26109888.559989993 | 686573.0138 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | 0.0785 | 0.9215 | 104 | 167291.76724999992 | 44231.57301 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? | 0.28 | 0.72 | 104 | 25747.732748 | 1106.9582 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 104 | 1390.2029770000001 | 8740.3791 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 104 | 8468.669812 | 10039.1826 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 24712.994926000003 | 12737.0645 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027? | 0.077 | 0.923 | 104 | 4419.028043 | 9339.22068 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 2411.193817 | 9721.0637 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 104 | 3289.9673689999995 | 10711.7995 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.305 | 0.695 | 104 | 38667.139406 | 6614.7938 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.063 | 0.937 | 104 | 9108.945492999997 | 27558.39468 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.158 | 0.842 | 104 | 13275.77394 | 28130.40333 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | 0.325 | 0.675 | 104 | 100146.43919800001 | 23187.152 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.161 | 0.839 | 104 | 18992.273357000002 | 29725.19684 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.2 | 0.8 | 104 | 21378.476994999997 | 15193.1982 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 104 | 46133.658656 | 19240.8381 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.285 | 0.715 | 104 | 118305.89091899998 | 9392.5378 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.365 | 0.635 | 104 | 52603.124938 | 4721.8836 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 104 | 22396.382335 | 27436.2578 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.285 | 0.715 | 104 | 29714.731595 | 7045.2504 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.195 | 0.805 | 104 | 106749.318711 | 18757.4363 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 104 | 34974.873972 | 18180.0719 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 104 | 17379.868072 | 14450.0376 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.155 | 0.845 | 104 | 20037.016238999997 | 14658.7996 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.0515 | 0.9485 | 104 | 18303.778500999997 | 34898.62665 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.0575 | 0.9425 | 104 | 12408.595706999999 | 33845.3497 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.13 | 0.87 | 104 | 49619.617555000004 | 5042.9003 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 104 | 54424.07881000002 | 16363.4157 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.155 | 0.845 | 104 | 23899.592555 | 15787.3471 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 104 | 36894.938522 | 17876.5365 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 104 | 12959.872874 | 17374.4391 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 104 | 5526.396376000001 | 17106.9513 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 142 | 27.150528 | 12351.9619 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | 0.775 | 0.225 | 104 | 13581.172988 | 1854.0207 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 104 | 3292.152268 | 12422.5589 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 2242165.9822939998 | 132740.8222 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 46 | 6664.799344 | 15648.7942 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | 0.185 | 0.815 | 104 | 88527.76903899999 | 58976.0128 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | 0.615 | 0.385 | 104 | 114548.29934200003 | 15896.428 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | 0.185 | 0.815 | 104 | 80413.231916 | 23779.09819 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election? | 0.22 | 0.78 | 104 | 18301.395773999997 | 9422.4112 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | 0.785 | 0.215 | 104 | 11047.718116000002 | 9692.6104 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 230528.06517000002 | 68945.2489 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 0.685 | 0.315 | 104 | 285600.747389 | 47650.4682 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | 0.245 | 0.755 | 27 | 33390.192854 | 5320.0762 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | 0.435 | 0.565 | 43 | 38552.340852999994 | 11554.3179 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 18 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | 0.615 | 0.385 | 73 | 18102.774594999995 | 8171.5409 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | 0.305 | 0.695 | 135 | 26998.672694999997 | 37972.4822 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? | 0.36 | 0.64 | 163 | 4725.034114 | 25219.6016 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 0.925 | 0.075 | 12 | 2224698.549141001 | 93983.9831 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 0.805 | 0.195 | 43 | 665391.4651890001 | 68818.9022 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 0.665 | 0.335 | 104 | 594182.2455750001 | 86474.0919 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 0.715 | 0.285 | 73 | 268204.576787 | 22137.2809 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 46 | 15170.955141999999 | 20021.8799 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.185 | 0.815 | 46 | 33814.297035999996 | 20706.8851 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.0715 | 0.9285 | 46 | 26631.83409000001 | 16440.40719 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.1115 | 0.8885 | 46 | 41692.92265499998 | 23618.14414 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.0975 | 0.9025 | 46 | 16546.822517999994 | 21760.13028 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.0695 | 0.9305 | 46 | 12130.157111000002 | 15997.10826 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | 0.825 | 0.175 | 7 | 3311.954595 | 27989.9048 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 0.745 | 0.255 | 12 | 11904.939526 | 15103.861 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 0.555 | 0.445 | 43 | 5524.591305 | 16583.8521 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info | NO | open | ||
| 17 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 0.064 | 0.936 | 104 | 3398925.1071419995 | 94050.62318 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 17 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 104 | 109011.94056900003 | 11570.743 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.895 | 0.105 | 45 | 6601712.444581003 | 1448939.3549 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 45 | 4837025.548369999 | 1200164.9733 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 0.595 | 0.405 | 43 | 3271516.132624999 | 240548.2964 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 0.305 | 0.695 | 43 | 2245995.2059810003 | 299563.3584 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 0.105 | 0.895 | 43 | 3291233.4735629996 | 623288.4226 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 104 | 79174.97879300002 | 16569.9602 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 50005.429901999996 | 10552.3195 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.0875 | 0.9125 | 104 | 18722.161356 | 14063.46931 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 11455.954851000004 | 11783.0045 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 17338.712198 | 11148.6223 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 104 | 58680.640684999984 | 14179.1871 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 104 | 4413.225739999999 | 9256.8551 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 8589.939115000001 | 16576.1638 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 3640.4737150000005 | 10285.887 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 3169.3127940000004 | 9197.6932 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.0565 | 0.9435 | 104 | 15981.100601 | 13267.81799 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.0575 | 0.9425 | 104 | 56533.90841699999 | 14011.16968 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 5270.279872999999 | 12908.9408 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 104 | 66142.67778199998 | 18156.55664 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.0875 | 0.9125 | 104 | 6108.560190000002 | 11701.10033 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 104 | 7573.336335 | 9774.2817 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.073 | 0.927 | 104 | 2517.6632380000005 | 8787.60746 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 9071.651447 | 12348.5739 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 4612.016646 | 11226.2934 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 16108.691979000003 | 9908.49308 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Matt Gaetz announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 104 | 2964.353959 | 9049.4818 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.05 | 0.95 | 104 | 16450.540513000004 | 12079.42632 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 20983.917607000003 | 14170.228 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.088 | 0.912 | 104 | 1886.8232460000002 | 11696.2833 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 104 | 21693038.921236996 | 670260.60345 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.595 | 0.405 | 43 | 2773868.972849 | 269620.3311 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 0.415 | 0.585 | 43 | 1858321.1612280004 | 302440.0138 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 0.175 | 0.825 | 104 | 11825334.397512997 | 514225.7975 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Trump out as President before 2027? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 11731199.737787003 | 317530.5344 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.325 | 0.675 | 46 | 203291.71367100003 | 29731.8058 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.155 | 0.845 | 46 | 46558.53456 | 22891.9145 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 46 | 52720.505041000004 | 29705.2975 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.125 | 0.875 | 46 | 128199.65835399997 | 28500.5906 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 46 | 232071.45909100008 | 35369.2905 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.0895 | 0.9105 | 46 | 605532.565151 | 27795.77421 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 317110.534873 | 103565.3484 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 0.583 | 0.417 | 104 | 26104.151608000007 | 13972.47852 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 0.0565 | 0.9435 | 104 | 2445.6060560000005 | 19365.87472 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 0.084 | 0.916 | 104 | 3900.4074709999995 | 11799.12283 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 0.615 | 0.385 | 46 | 978205.885409 | 71670.9333 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 0.357 | 0.643 | 46 | 1658860.0628560004 | 162680.11867 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 12 | 1096532.066299 | 52724.5869 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 0.42 | 0.58 | 104 | 348479.9809780001 | 68243.782 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | 0.205 | 0.795 | 43 | 157706.853968 | 35696.918 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 2352200.620347 | 152181.2371 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.905 | 0.095 | 45 | 95359.98710199996 | 12545.7259 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.925 | 0.075 | 45 | 16849.123319 | 9440.2483 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.775 | 0.225 | 45 | 18722.343236000008 | 9571.897 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.1105 | 0.8895 | 46 | 7278.847435 | 20113.47802 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.1205 | 0.8795 | 46 | 7253.421109000001 | 10435.82219 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.0605 | 0.9395 | 46 | 1799.475687 | 10496.3141 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.295 | 0.705 | 46 | 2604.777632 | 35270.36196 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 46 | 3399.012131 | 9945.46805 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.089 | 0.911 | 46 | 1716.278383 | 10727.97303 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 0.1435 | 0.8565 | 46 | 3043.5468700000006 | 25422.43154 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.765 | 0.235 | 46 | 7598.024742 | 24498.8532 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.5 | 0.5 | 46 | 1119.357951 | 10734.3761 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.59 | 0.41 | 46 | 3054.1635639999995 | 10927.8241 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.695 | 0.305 | 46 | 5893.900949000001 | 11074.9161 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.705 | 0.295 | 46 | 3284.896643 | 11274.5902 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.565 | 0.435 | 46 | 4243.230105 | 11245.714 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.58 | 0.42 | 46 | 2427.7068650000006 | 8555.5856 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.445 | 0.555 | 46 | 3887.2869889999993 | 9059.0011 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.15 | 0.85 | 46 | 2730.1814210000002 | 18595.9332 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.285 | 0.715 | 46 | 5817.419903 | 5343.4151 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.19 | 0.81 | 46 | 2057.195115 | 14629.3155 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.245 | 0.755 | 46 | 10444.245483 | 7694.2431 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | 0.111 | 0.889 | 46 | 3190.074813 | 12637.3065 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 858284.5163890002 | 92497.2141 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.245 | 0.755 | 46 | 37200.570077000004 | 15054.9869 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | 0.0555 | 0.9445 | 104 | 614781.2015339995 | 96925.28694 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 1%? | 0.185 | 0.815 | 46 | 51.926488 | 11174.7222 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 1%? | 0.2 | 0.8 | 46 | 36 | 11371.9577 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 46 | 248.07777599999997 | 11286.2932 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 1%? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 46 | 268.56458899999996 | 11153.9413 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%? | 0.087 | 0.913 | 46 | 69.99000000000001 | 10686.14707 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 5783.436587 | 9158.8238 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | 0.085 | 0.915 | 104 | 236099.66995399998 | 20019.4858 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 16 | Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 9958.28625 | 10581.3324 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 0.265 | 0.735 | 108 | 1138042.018714 | 112784.7405 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | 0.535 | 0.465 | 108 | 408111.05402999994 | 15843.0166 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 0.785 | 0.215 | 108 | 590529.8266270001 | 19786.0067 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | 0.835 | 0.165 | 108 | 614983.3265719999 | 83248.2799 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | 0.93 | 0.07 | 108 | 189389.59417200004 | 63029.7137 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 108 | 785342.8415330001 | 45718.88032 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | 0.0585 | 0.9415 | 108 | 286726.306477 | 54548.65868 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? | 0.155 | 0.845 | 104 | 66370.01443200001 | 14978.0173 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | 0.1825 | 0.8175 | 104 | 112168.96250100003 | 31550.37086 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 104 | 68741.39166500002 | 29969.3058 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? | 0.065 | 0.935 | 104 | 54509.59771000001 | 23427.9734 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 22043.395101000002 | 23604.5965 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Ostium FDV above $50M one day after launch? | 0.0885 | 0.9115 | 104 | 17922.462354 | 19478.09198 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Ostium FDV above $75M one day after launch? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 104 | 3985.982954 | 22165.1687 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 0.0545 | 0.9455 | 104 | 5342.822374999999 | 24913.72806 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 0.061 | 0.939 | 104 | 9524.456021 | 23642.05938 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open | ||
| 15 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 0.055 | 0.945 | 104 | 25496.539581999998 | 23984.55307 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | NO | open |
| Score | Market | YES | NO | Days | Volume | Liquidity | Category | Edge Type | Avoid | Avoid Reason | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | 0.0055 | 0.9945 | 12 | 1644836.8636310003 | 120802.49898 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 17 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | 0.045 | 0.955 | 73 | 25982.366111 | 60804.4375 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 17 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 0.0295 | 0.9705 | 43 | 254929.20799 | 45060.2739 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 17 | Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? | 0.045 | 0.955 | 104 | 67258.996145 | 65092.4992 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | 0.0355 | 0.9645 | 82 | 893.722149 | 42553.10796 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | 0.985 | 0.015 | 12 | 3250066.840984001 | 145197.43838 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will Iran join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.0805 | 0.9195 | 104 | 2460.06689 | 299.26665 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 15 | Will Jordan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.0305 | 0.9695 | 104 | 1450.535686 | 8461.66593 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will Lebanon join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.0105 | 0.9895 | 104 | 2608.226103000001 | 8381.07096 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.035 | 0.965 | 104 | 5583.919959999999 | 10957.42879 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will Sudan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.031 | 0.969 | 104 | 2783.8758719999996 | 11136.11225 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | 0.0105 | 0.9895 | 104 | 2680.0325940000002 | 8331.86829 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027? | 0.0695 | 0.9305 | 104 | 4819.321562999999 | 1988.30936 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 15 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? | 0.0205 | 0.9795 | 104 | 17770.243154999996 | 10236.41048 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027? | 0.0105 | 0.9895 | 104 | 7293.841495999998 | 11796.27061 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? | 0.225 | 0.775 | 104 | 3093.6411060000014 | 967.0992 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 15 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027? | 0.15 | 0.85 | 104 | 572.128782 | 2884.3786 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 15 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027? | 0.08 | 0.92 | 104 | 2261.556593 | 2542.2373 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 15 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027? | 0.095 | 0.905 | 104 | 552.9097769999998 | 2160.1746 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 15 | Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.022 | 0.978 | 104 | 1246.0275159999999 | 8460.1855 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.0135 | 0.9865 | 104 | 1278.155054 | 8629.55073 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.495 | 0.505 | 104 | 1138.6871430000003 | 214.3122 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 15 | Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.045 | 0.955 | 104 | 1392.791604 | 9589.3665 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.605 | 0.395 | 104 | 1634.204547 | 245.6955 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 15 | Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 104 | 19163.37506 | 954.07348 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 15 | Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | 0.55 | 0.45 | 104 | 1302.7789849999997 | 539.8335 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | low_volume_liquidity | open | |
| 14 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 36% and 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 285 | 8956.246631 | 47347.8792 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 14 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.875 | 0.125 | 285 | 21634.60093700002 | 24485.3318 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.895 | 0.105 | 285 | 32274.816010000002 | 13094.9972 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.123 | 0.877 | 285 | 27643.798241 | 12766.40014 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.795 | 0.205 | 285 | 13679.811617999996 | 384.678 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.84 | 0.16 | 285 | 17704.355418 | 11579.2631 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.695 | 0.305 | 285 | 10935.783716999997 | 3076.5602 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 285 | 7551.316876 | 9192.9127 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.255 | 0.745 | 285 | 11833.600320000003 | 1501.5266 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.735 | 0.265 | 285 | 11566.913113999999 | 1437.2729 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.385 | 0.615 | 285 | 17681.104392999994 | 1777.115 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.625 | 0.375 | 285 | 13549.067237999998 | 833.0719 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.245 | 0.755 | 285 | 10775.560856000002 | 3463.0736 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0585 | 0.9415 | 285 | 4382.9472399999995 | 12915.32022 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.305 | 0.695 | 285 | 16014.274061 | 4421.9451 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 285 | 10644.202351999998 | 10176.0043 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.062 | 0.938 | 285 | 3031.220588 | 9939.60382 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0525 | 0.9475 | 285 | 2136.841021 | 9916.34911 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0525 | 0.9475 | 285 | 1638.6537759999997 | 9883.54974 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0745 | 0.9255 | 285 | 10804.800750999999 | 9936.7594 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.07 | 0.93 | 285 | 3548.1020519999997 | 9803.1873 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.105 | 0.895 | 285 | 31726.471343 | 10483.9433 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0575 | 0.9425 | 285 | 2764.7730089999995 | 11117.73109 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.075 | 0.925 | 285 | 2958.816259 | 9446.0972 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.855 | 0.145 | 285 | 7144.386673 | 9599.356 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Delphine Batho be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.088 | 0.912 | 285 | 1943.6902570000002 | 9739.02331 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.0545 | 0.9455 | 285 | 1947.044559 | 11775.25683 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.06 | 0.94 | 285 | 13601.452754 | 13086.0468 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 285 | 7588.090019999999 | 9933.7641 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.052 | 0.948 | 285 | 7801.395924999999 | 11764.98752 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 13 | Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 0.0015 | 0.9985 | 45 | 90180.301431 | 16122.57953 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.0035 | 0.9965 | 40 | 940501.023208 | 405482.98412 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.0065 | 0.9935 | 40 | 1334383.1609860007 | 465467.88067 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 0.0065 | 0.9935 | 40 | 848206.4938890002 | 288313.70351 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 82 | 160737.52860800002 | 140260.69983 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.0185 | 0.9815 | 82 | 215455.65965599997 | 155260.20396 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.0135 | 0.9865 | 82 | 159276.49098899998 | 125680.74343 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? | 0.0285 | 0.9715 | 104 | 19153.904481000005 | 86684.88519 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? | 0.025 | 0.975 | 104 | 55104.99856300002 | 8718.64722 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? | 0.026 | 0.974 | 104 | 142556.53040899997 | 5119.49769 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? | 0.0325 | 0.9675 | 104 | 80601.85058099998 | 3686.88838 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027? | 0.033 | 0.967 | 104 | 19455.140596999998 | 8144.08776 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027? | 0.0185 | 0.9815 | 104 | 2319.263142 | 7941.50697 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? | 0.014 | 0.986 | 104 | 3777.6913409999997 | 9860.22529 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027? | 0.0175 | 0.9825 | 104 | 28319.635793999998 | 7840.89983 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? | 0.013 | 0.987 | 104 | 13136.266924000001 | 89829.90543 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027? | 0.0155 | 0.9845 | 104 | 740.749897 | 6808.69392 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? | 0.0145 | 0.9855 | 104 | 107192.309883 | 11397.78446 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? | 0.0145 | 0.9855 | 104 | 132356.406095 | 9332.93871 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027? | 0.0145 | 0.9855 | 104 | 21203.443379000004 | 23528.81604 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? | 0.023 | 0.977 | 104 | 41827.974255999994 | 89205.22012 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | 0.015 | 0.985 | 104 | 224319.42585700002 | 85996.44374 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | 0.0225 | 0.9775 | 104 | 366204.52162699995 | 108147.8862 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | 0.0065 | 0.9935 | 104 | 319596.73397299997 | 8381.15582 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.0025 | 0.9975 | 104 | 92978.22152600004 | 22664.23724 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.0035 | 0.9965 | 104 | 179656.486374 | 34491.80089 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.0045 | 0.9955 | 104 | 69823.817799 | 26222.15697 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.0025 | 0.9975 | 104 | 499750.041233 | 31845.98213 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.004 | 0.996 | 104 | 85176.434014 | 44748.37183 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.0165 | 0.9835 | 104 | 205803.62313099994 | 65072.18344 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.045 | 0.955 | 104 | 537919.9289069999 | 16029.10782 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.0035 | 0.9965 | 104 | 256855.37405300007 | 23331.60815 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? | 0.0035 | 0.9965 | 104 | 153379.60581600002 | 24299.87059 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? | 0.0025 | 0.9975 | 104 | 151157.35061200007 | 25718.42027 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? | 0.003 | 0.997 | 104 | 153519.03849600005 | 29609.60658 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? | 0.003 | 0.997 | 104 | 269110.631595 | 45503.76514 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | 0.0135 | 0.9865 | 50 | 167522.35013700003 | 148734.76165 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | 0.0215 | 0.9785 | 111 | 362819.4364400001 | 43027.33308 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | 0.0025 | 0.9975 | 104 | 31790.986439 | 44089.12979 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster | YES | extreme_price_poor_capital_efficiency | open | |
| 12 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-02 House election by 60% or more? | 0.21 | 0.79 | 285 | 378.396054 | 8359.232 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 12 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware be between 325,000 and 350,000? | 0.215 | 0.785 | 194 | 1345.906696 | 8859.233 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 12 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware be between 350,000 and 375,000? | 0.195 | 0.805 | 194 | 1252.3106879999996 | 8797.934 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 12 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware be between 375,000 and 400,000? | 0.295 | 0.705 | 194 | 1508.280125 | 37057.74504 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open | |
| 12 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware be between 400,000 and 425,000? | 0.135 | 0.865 | 194 | 1885.3582490000001 | 9093.6588 | complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster | YES | too_far_deadline | open |