Prediction Alpha Desk Monitor

Generated 2026-09-18 04:40 UTC.
This is the practical control panel: what we are watching, what source is wired, how close the deadline is, whether price has moved enough to matter, and whether an open PAPER trade should be reviewed for take-profit, runner, or stop-review. MAYBE remains watch-only.
4DEADLINE_SOON_1D
2EXIT_REVIEW
2SOURCE_NEEDED
AlertMarketActionSideTrade TypeEntry PriceCurrent PriceFair PriceTargetStop ReviewRemaining UpsideEntry EVDeadlineDays LeftMonitor TypeOfficial SourceSource StatusStatusExit ReasonNotesUrl
EXIT_REVIEWWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?YESYESRERATING_TEST0.25450.54650.30.27720.2036-45%+18%2026-10-0416manual_source_needed + rerating_lifecycle + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGactive rerating trade, review simulated take-profit / deadline exitrerating target reached: current price is at least halfway from entry to fairrerating target reached: current price is at least halfway from entry to fairmarket
EXIT_REVIEWU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?YESNORESOLUTION_EDGE0.90.920.975+6%+8%2026-12-31104manual_source_needed + resolution_edge_lifecycle + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGactive resolution-edge trade, review simulated take-profit / runnercurrent price is at least 80% of fair value; remaining upside to fair is 25% or lesscurrent price is at least 80% of fair value; remaining upside to fair is 25% or lessmarket
DEADLINE_SOON_1DUkraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?MAYBEYESWATCH0.06450.06450.07+9%+9%2026-06-30-80manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatching deadline and price onlyNeeds official Ukraine/US agreement source, not generic diplomacy headlines.market
DEADLINE_SOON_1DWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?MAYBEYESWATCH0.39250.39252026-06-30-80manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatching deadline and price onlyNeeds ISW/geospatial monitoring before any trade. Do not infer from headlines.market
DEADLINE_SOON_1DWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?MAYBENOWATCH0.3780.3780.53+40%+40%2026-08-11-38manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatching deadline and price onlylatest market match had no usable side price, using ledger entry as fallbackmarket
DEADLINE_SOON_1DWill the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?YESYESRESOLUTION_EDGE0.130.130.26+100%+100%2026-09-10-8manual_source_needed + resolution_edge_lifecycle + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGactive paper trade, check deadline mechanicslatest market match had no usable side price, using ledger entry as fallbackmarket
SOURCE_NEEDEDWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?MAYBEYESWATCH0.5150.4250.57+34%+11%2026-10-0416manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredlatest Polymarket price matchedmarket
SOURCE_NEEDEDWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?MAYBENOWATCH0.85450.9890.93-6%+9%2026-10-0416manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredlatest Polymarket price matchedmarket