Prediction Alpha Desk Monitor

Generated 2026-06-16 08:44 UTC.
This is the practical control panel: what we are watching, what source is wired, how close the deadline is, and whether price has moved enough to matter. MAYBE remains watch-only.
1NO_ALERT
7SOURCE_NEEDED
AlertMarketActionSideEntry PriceCurrent PriceFair PriceUpside PctDeadlineDays LeftMonitor TypeOfficial SourceSource StatusStatusNotesUrl
SOURCE_NEEDEDIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?MAYBEYES0.1150.1150.162026-06-3014manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredNeeds official Knesset dissolution tracking before any trade.market
SOURCE_NEEDEDUkraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?MAYBEYES0.06450.0640.072026-06-3014manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredNeeds official Ukraine/US agreement source, not generic diplomacy headlines.market
SOURCE_NEEDEDWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?MAYBEYES0.39250.34352026-06-3014manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredNeeds ISW/geospatial monitoring before any trade. Do not infer from headlines.market
SOURCE_NEEDEDWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?MAYBEYES0.18050.17850.222026-09-2096manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredlatest Polymarket price matchedmarket
SOURCE_NEEDEDWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?MAYBEYES0.25450.25450.32026-10-04110manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredlatest Polymarket price matchedmarket
SOURCE_NEEDEDWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?MAYBEYES0.5150.5150.572026-10-04110manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredlatest Polymarket price matchedmarket
SOURCE_NEEDEDWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?MAYBENO0.85450.85450.932026-10-04110manual_source_needed + deadline_watch + price_moveMISSINGwatch only, source not wiredlatest Polymarket price matchedmarket
NO_ALERTBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?YESYES0.320.3150.85166%2026-06-259official_source_watch + deadline_watch + price_movesourceCONFIGUREDwatching configured source and pricelatest Polymarket price matchedmarket