Prediction Alpha Desk Paper Scenarios

Generated 2026-09-18 04:40 UTC.

3Active scenario markets

+$300.00Active stake

+$116.95Open mark P/L

4Full-exit triggers

2Partial-exit triggers

0Cut-loss triggers

29Closed/exited rows removed

Scenario totals include active paper positions only. Closed exits such as rerating take-profits are excluded so the page cannot resurrect already-exited trades.

Scenario details

Market	Side	Trade Type	Entry bucket	Policy	State	Entry	Current	Fair	Target	Stop Review	Exit fraction	Runner	Cash now	Realized P/L now	Runner mark	Total mark P/L	Alert	URL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	YES	RERATING_TEST	rerating trade	hold_to_resolution	WAIT	0.2545	0.5465	0.3	0.2772	0.2036	0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$214.73	+$114.73	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	YES	RERATING_TEST	rerating trade	full_exit_on_rerating_target	EXIT_NOW	0.2545	0.5465	0.3	0.2772	0.2036	1	0	+$214.73	+$114.73	$0.00	+$114.73	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	YES	RERATING_TEST	rerating trade	cut_loss_on_stop_review	WAIT	0.2545	0.5465	0.3	0.2772	0.2036	0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$214.73	+$114.73	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	hold_to_resolution	WAIT	0.9	0.92	0.975			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$102.22	+$2.22	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	sell_75_keep_25_runner	PARTIAL_EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.92	0.975			0.75	0.25	+$76.67	+$1.67	+$25.56	+$2.22	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	recover_stake_keep_runner	PARTIAL_EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.92	0.975			0.9783	0.0217	+$100.00	+$2.17	+$2.22	+$2.22	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	full_exit_on_exit_review	EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.92	0.975			1	0	+$102.22	+$2.22	$0.00	+$2.22	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	exit_at_80pct_fair	EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.92	0.975			1	0	+$102.22	+$2.22	$0.00	+$2.22	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	exit_at_90pct_fair	EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.92	0.975			1	0	+$102.22	+$2.22	$0.00	+$2.22	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	deadline_profit_exit	WAIT	0.9	0.92	0.975			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$102.22	+$2.22	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	hold_to_resolution	WAIT	0.13	0.13	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.00	$0.00	DEADLINE_SOON_1D	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	sell_75_keep_25_runner	WAIT	0.13	0.13	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.00	$0.00	DEADLINE_SOON_1D	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	recover_stake_keep_runner	WAIT	0.13	0.13	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.00	$0.00	DEADLINE_SOON_1D	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	full_exit_on_exit_review	WAIT	0.13	0.13	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.00	$0.00	DEADLINE_SOON_1D	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	exit_at_80pct_fair	WAIT	0.13	0.13	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.00	$0.00	DEADLINE_SOON_1D	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	exit_at_90pct_fair	WAIT	0.13	0.13	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.00	$0.00	DEADLINE_SOON_1D	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	deadline_profit_exit	WAIT	0.13	0.13	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.00	$0.00	DEADLINE_SOON_1D	market