Prediction Alpha Desk Paper Scenarios

Generated 2026-08-14 02:46 UTC.

4Active scenario markets

+$800.00Active stake

+$184.17Open mark P/L

7Full-exit triggers

4Partial-exit triggers

0Cut-loss triggers

22Closed/exited rows removed

Scenario totals include active paper positions only. Closed exits such as rerating take-profits are excluded so the page cannot resurrect already-exited trades.

Scenario details

Market	Side	Trade Type	Entry bucket	Policy	State	Entry	Current	Fair	Target	Stop Review	Exit fraction	Runner	Cash now	Realized P/L now	Runner mark	Total mark P/L	Alert	URL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	YES	RERATING_TEST	rerating trade	hold_to_resolution	WAIT	0.2545	0.2785	0.3	0.2772	0.2036	0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$109.43	+$9.43	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	YES	RERATING_TEST	rerating trade	full_exit_on_rerating_target	EXIT_NOW	0.2545	0.2785	0.3	0.2772	0.2036	1	0	+$109.43	+$9.43	$0.00	+$9.43	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	YES	RERATING_TEST	rerating trade	cut_loss_on_stop_review	WAIT	0.2545	0.2785	0.3	0.2772	0.2036	0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$109.43	+$9.43	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	hold_to_resolution	WAIT	0.66	0.895	0.89			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$678.03	+$178.03	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	sell_75_keep_25_runner	PARTIAL_EXIT_NOW	0.66	0.895	0.89			0.75	0.25	+$508.52	+$133.52	+$169.51	+$178.03	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	recover_stake_keep_runner	PARTIAL_EXIT_NOW	0.66	0.895	0.89			0.7374	0.2626	+$500.00	+$131.28	+$178.03	+$178.03	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	full_exit_on_exit_review	EXIT_NOW	0.66	0.895	0.89			1	0	+$678.03	+$178.03	$0.00	+$178.03	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	exit_at_80pct_fair	EXIT_NOW	0.66	0.895	0.89			1	0	+$678.03	+$178.03	$0.00	+$178.03	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	exit_at_90pct_fair	EXIT_NOW	0.66	0.895	0.89			1	0	+$678.03	+$178.03	$0.00	+$178.03	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	deadline_profit_exit	WAIT	0.66	0.895	0.89			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$678.03	+$178.03	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	hold_to_resolution	WAIT	0.9	0.905	0.975			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.56	+$0.56	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	sell_75_keep_25_runner	PARTIAL_EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.905	0.975			0.75	0.25	+$75.42	+$0.42	+$25.14	+$0.56	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	recover_stake_keep_runner	PARTIAL_EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.905	0.975			0.9945	0.0055	+$100.00	+$0.55	+$0.56	+$0.56	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	full_exit_on_exit_review	EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.905	0.975			1	0	+$100.56	+$0.56	$0.00	+$0.56	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	exit_at_80pct_fair	EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.905	0.975			1	0	+$100.56	+$0.56	$0.00	+$0.56	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	exit_at_90pct_fair	EXIT_NOW	0.9	0.905	0.975			1	0	+$100.56	+$0.56	$0.00	+$0.56	EXIT_REVIEW	market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	NO	RESOLUTION_EDGE	NO-side fade	deadline_profit_exit	WAIT	0.9	0.905	0.975			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$100.56	+$0.56	EXIT_REVIEW	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	hold_to_resolution	WAIT	0.13	0.125	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$96.15	$-3.85	SOURCE_NEEDED	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	sell_75_keep_25_runner	WAIT	0.13	0.125	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$96.15	$-3.85	SOURCE_NEEDED	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	recover_stake_keep_runner	WAIT	0.13	0.125	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$96.15	$-3.85	SOURCE_NEEDED	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	full_exit_on_exit_review	WAIT	0.13	0.125	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$96.15	$-3.85	SOURCE_NEEDED	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	exit_at_80pct_fair	WAIT	0.13	0.125	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$96.15	$-3.85	SOURCE_NEEDED	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	exit_at_90pct_fair	WAIT	0.13	0.125	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$96.15	$-3.85	SOURCE_NEEDED	market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?	YES	RESOLUTION_EDGE	low-price asymmetric	deadline_profit_exit	WAIT	0.13	0.125	0.26			0	1	$0.00	$0.00	+$96.15	$-3.85	SOURCE_NEEDED	market