Prediction Alpha Desk Research Delta

Generated: 2026-08-14 02:45 UTC. Change detector for the conviction-desk research queue. This is not a trade list.
Bet Queue definition: Bet Queue remains strict: it is the decision-grade analyst queue, not a loosened radar. A market only graduates toward WATCH/PAPER after source-backed thesis work, clear resolution criteria, fair-value gap, liquidity/spread check, and lifecycle logic.
Research now, not necessarily bet: Research now, not necessarily bet: urgent tape events are alarms for immediate source work. They are not recommendations and do not relax Bet Queue standards.
RankTape eventTitleYES nowYES prevYES ΔRel ΔDaysPriority
No urgent tape events detected.

Full delta table: new entries, price moves, priority moves, deadline transitions, route changes, low-to-mid YES lane candidates, and dropped queue items since the prior committed queue snapshot.

RankChangeScoreResearch nowTitleYES nowYES prevYES ΔPriorityDaysRouteLow-mid YES
1NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?0.1329139RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
2NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?0.2126139DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
3NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?0.1252518DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
4NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOIran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026?0.09327DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
5NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?0.1725139RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
6NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NORussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?0.20533139RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
7NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?0.1753381RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
8NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOIran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?0.095328DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
9NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?0.133217DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
10NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?0.133217DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
11NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NORussia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?0.233247DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
12NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NORussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?0.1153178DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
13NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?0.1253080DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
14NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?0.1252947RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
15NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?0.2352881DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
16NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?0.8423139RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
17NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0.5553675DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
18NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0.573480DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
19NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?0.8753080DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
20NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0.4353675DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
21NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?0.723632DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
22NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?0.5153480DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
23NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.3363481RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
24NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?0.83053381RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
25NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?0.6263247CLUSTER_REVIEWNO
26NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?0.333117DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
27PRICE_MOVE; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE65NOWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.2750.325-0.053032DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
28PRICE_MOVE50NOWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?0.7150.6650.053032DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
29DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?0.14523140RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
30DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?0.1223140DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
31DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?0.1225140DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
32DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?0.3453633DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
33DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?0.4753481DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
34DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?0.5052619DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
35DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?0.1053379DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
36DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?0.162982CLUSTER_REVIEWNO
37DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?0.6953481DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
38DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?0.3053481DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
39DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0.4153481DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
40DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.6553482RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO