Prediction Alpha Desk Research Delta

Generated: 2026-09-18 04:40 UTC. Change detector for the conviction-desk research queue. This is not a trade list.
Bet Queue definition: Bet Queue remains strict: it is the decision-grade analyst queue, not a loosened radar. A market only graduates toward WATCH/PAPER after source-backed thesis work, clear resolution criteria, fair-value gap, liquidity/spread check, and lifecycle logic.
Research now, not necessarily bet: Research now, not necessarily bet: urgent tape events are alarms for immediate source work. They are not recommendations and do not relax Bet Queue standards.
RankTape eventTitleYES nowYES prevYES ΔRel ΔDaysPriority
No urgent tape events detected.

Full delta table: new entries, price moves, priority moves, deadline transitions, route changes, low-to-mid YES lane candidates, and dropped queue items since the prior committed queue snapshot.

RankChangeScoreResearch nowTitleYES nowYES prevYES ΔPriorityDaysRouteLow-mid YES
1NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?0.10529104DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
2NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?0.06531104RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
3NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?0.163482DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
4NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?0.26530108RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
5NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?0.13535104DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
6NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?0.263482DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
7NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?0.1453445DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
8NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?0.0933104DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
9NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?0.10532104DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
10NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?0.16532104RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
11NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?0.0931104RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
12NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NORussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?0.0753143DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
13NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NORussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?0.1253173DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
14NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?0.1430104DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATEYES
15NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?0.06430104RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKYES
16NEW_QUEUE_ITEM; LOW_TO_MID_YES_LANE115NOWill the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?0.122946CLUSTER_REVIEWYES
17NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?0.5453445DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
18NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?0.3152612DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
19NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0.66530104RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
20NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?0.4553445DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
21NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0.6553445DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
22NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0.3453445DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
23NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?0.4953240DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
24NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.5053240DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
25NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?0.3153282DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
26NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?0.9253112DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
27NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?0.7153173DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
28NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill no listed leader be out before 2027?0.32530104DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
29NEW_QUEUE_ITEM100NOWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?0.83530108RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
30DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?0.06520105DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
31DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NORussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?0.0553244RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
32DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?0.1253147DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
33DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill Iran join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?0.07531105RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
34DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?0.123647RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
35DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?0.54530109RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
36DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?0.3053647RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
37DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?0.1752613DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
38DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOIran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)0.143944RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO
39DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?0.9352113DEEP_DIVE_CANDIDATENO
40DROPPED_FROM_QUEUE10NOWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0.30530105RULES_INTEGRITY_CHECKNO