| 2026-06-16 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | 0.32 | 0.68 | 2026-06-25 | 22306.0941 | 0.85 | 0.53 | -0.53 | PAPER YES | High | YES | 500 | 0.32 | 1.656 | WIN | 1062.50 | RESOLUTION_EDGE: Positive example of signature-threshold/certification markets creating procedural edge when reports strongly imply qualification but market prices political controversy. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | 0.0645 | 0.9355 | 2026-06-30 | 19163.83542 | 0.07 | 0.0055 | -0.0055 | WATCH | Medium | | | 0.0645 | | | | Keep but add headline-vs-resolution distinction for ceasefire/framework markets. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | 0.3925 | 0.6075 | 2026-06-30 | 10660.40271 | | | | WATCH | Low | | | 0.3925 | | | | Create separate ISW/geospatial route. Do not manually guess map-resolution war markets. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.515 | 0.485 | 2026-10-04 | 223050.21 | 0.57 | 0.055 | -0.055 | WATCH | Medium | | | 0.515 | | | | Brazil cluster should be evaluated as a correlated group; avoid single-candidate trades unless fair probability gap is larger. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1455 | 0.8545 | 2026-10-04 | 187318.89949 | 0.07 | -0.0755 | 0.0755 | WATCH | Medium | | | 0.8545 | | | | Candidate-cluster markets need polling-model module not just keyword score. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.2545 | 0.7455 | 2026-10-04 | 187233.6311 | 0.30 | 0.0455 | -0.0455 | PAPER YES | Medium | YES | 100 | 0.2545 | 0.1788 | | | RERATING_TEST: small paper bet only. Thesis is that Bolsonaro-family challenger odds can rerate toward 30% on opposition consolidation or favorable polling. Target roughly halfway to fair; stop-review if price falls materially below entry. Not a resolution-edge conviction bet. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | 0.12 | 0.88 | 2026-08-06 | 12262.2528 | 0.10 | -0.02 | 0.02 | SKIP | Medium | | | 0.12 | | | | Low-salience US primary markets should be demoted unless there is polling/endorsement edge. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.165 | 0.835 | 2026-08-11 | 10602.8181 | 0.15 | -0.015 | 0.015 | SKIP | Medium | | | 0.165 | | | | Demote celebrity-name primary markets unless a polling/endorsement signal is present. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | 0.115 | 0.885 | 2026-06-30 | 26621.1721 | 0.16 | 0.045 | -0.045 | PAPER YES | Low | YES | 100 | 0.115 | 0.3913 | EXIT_TAKE_PROFIT | 191.30 | RERATING_TEST: small paper bet only. Thesis is that procedural/coalition news can rerate the contract before final deadline even if we do not want to hold to resolution. Target roughly halfway to fair; stop-review if thesis deteriorates or price falls materially below entry. EXIT_RECORDED: full simulated take-profit at 0.335 on 2026-06-21 after rerating target was exceeded. | open |
| 2026-06-16 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 0.1805 | 0.8195 | 2026-09-20 | 25693.2077 | 0.22 | 0.0395 | -0.0395 | PAPER YES | Medium | YES | 250 | 0.1805 | 0.2188 | | | RERATING_TEST: medium paper bet. Thesis is not guaranteed final win but rerating on polling/seat-path evidence. Target roughly halfway to fair; stop-review if price falls materially below entry or CDU lead widens. | open |