Each item needs evidence-backed probability work before it can enter the research ledger. The point is to process batches, not manually paste market rules one by one.
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following: 1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework. 2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be is...
"Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?" official source deadline | "Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that pr...
"Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" official source deadline | "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading wh...
"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?" official source deadline | "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If...
"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" official source deadline | "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If...
"Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" official source deadline | "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If...
"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" official source deadline | "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's time...
"Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?" official source deadline | "Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
"Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?" official source deadline | "Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Colorado Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Colorado Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will re...
"Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" official source deadline | "Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this marke...
"Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" official source deadline | "Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market...
"Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" official source deadline | "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of...
"Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" official source deadline | "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of...
"Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" official source deadline | "Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or...
"Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?" official source deadline | "Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round wil...
"Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?" official source deadline | "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this elect...
"Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" official source deadline | "Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior El...
"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" official source deadline | "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden foll...
"Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?" official source deadline | "Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden foll...
"Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?" official source deadline | "Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Tennessee, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Tennessee Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Tennessee, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market...
"Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?" official source deadline | "Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this marke...
"Will Eric Hovde win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Eric Hovde win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?" official source deadline | "Will Eric Hovde win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this marke...
"Will Sean Duffy win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Sean Duffy win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?" official source deadline | "Will Sean Duffy win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this marke...
"Will Patrick Knight win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Patrick Knight win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" official source deadline | "Will Patrick Knight win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this marke...
"Will Kristin Robbins win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Kristin Robbins win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" official source deadline | "Will Kristin Robbins win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used. The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to...
"Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?" official source deadline | "Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the elect...
"Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" official source deadline | "Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the elect...
"Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" official source deadline | "Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the elect...
"Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" official source deadline | "Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market...
"Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" official source deadline | "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market...
"Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" official source deadline | "Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" rules election law procedure