Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of thi...
"Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" official source deadline | "Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. Any form of informal understanding, backcha...
"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa,...
"Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?" official source deadline | "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution...
"U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?" official source deadline | "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed...
"Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?" official source deadline | "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. This market will resolve according to the wi...
"Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics
URL: open market
What price will Bitcoin hit in August? This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
"Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?" official source deadline | "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, bu...
"Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026?" official source deadline | "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability. An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement wi...
"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party...
"Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" official source deadline | "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed...
"Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?" official source deadline | "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, t...
"Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?" official source deadline | "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. This market will resolve according to the winne...
"Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles. The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible report...
"Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" official source deadline | "Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. Any form of informal understanding, backcha...
"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve accord...
"Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" official source deadline | "Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. This market will resolve accord...
"Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" official source deadline | "Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, bu...
"Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?" official source deadline | "Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediat...
"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?" official source deadline | "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The represe...
"Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The represe...
"Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Uk...
"Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?" official source deadline | "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation witho...
"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announ...
"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" official source deadline | "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The...
"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" official source deadline | "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The...
"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" official source deadline | "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party...
"Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" official source deadline | "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Wheth...
"Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?" official source deadline | "Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party a...
"Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" official source deadline | "Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" rules election law procedure