Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. Any form of informal understanding, backcha...
"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution...
"U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?" official source deadline | "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s...
"Will Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Will Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any list...
"Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?" official source deadline | "Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well a...
"Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?" official source deadline | "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. This market w...
"Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; local_info
URL: open market
What price will Ethereum hit in September? This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
"Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?" official source deadline | "Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
Rules This market resolves to "Yes" if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a non-Iranian fund or substantive funding mechanism for Iranian reconstruction or economic development, or creates an obligation for non-Iranian actors to commit funding to such reconstruction or development, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to "No." The instrument must either directly establish a fund or substantive funding mechanism the purpose of which is to hold or collect, and distribute funds used in the reconstruction or economic development of Iran, or establish a binding obligation for actors not under the control of Iran to commit funding to the reconstruction or economic development of Iran. A substantive funding mechanism refers to a specifically defined structure...
"Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market...
"Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" official source deadline | "Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any list...
"Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?" official source deadline | "Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. This market w...
"Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. This market will resolve according to the wi...
"Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. This market will resolve according to the wi...
"Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. This market will resolve according to...
"Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
Rules This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a percentage cap of 5% or less on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, committed to for at least one year, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The instrument must specifically include a 5% or lower percentage cap that operates as a general ceiling on the level to which Iran may enrich uranium for any purpose. Vague, or non-specific language regarding the level of Iranian uranium enrichment which does not establish a specific percentage cap on all Iranian enrichment (e.g., “lower levels”, “civilian grade”, “maintain the status quo”) will not qualify. Caps which directly mandate a precise 5% or lower percentage cap on Iranian enrichment through reference to a...
"Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" official source deadline | "Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, ballot/filing, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_note
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical...
"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The lev...
"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" official source deadline | "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The lev...
"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" official source deadline | "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure
URL: open market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The lev...
"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?" official source deadline | "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission. The Kraków mayoral election is sc...
"Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?" official source deadline | "Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s...
"Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation witho...
"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?" official source deadline | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation witho...
"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?" official source deadline | "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Muniti...
"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?" official source deadline | "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Muniti...
"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" official source deadline | "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution...
"U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?" official source deadline | "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before...
"Will no listed leader be out before 2027?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will no listed leader be out before 2027?" official source deadline | "Will no listed leader be out before 2027?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, local-info, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; cluster_check; local_info
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damag...
"China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" official source deadline | "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: resolution_integrity_check
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well a...
"Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?" official source deadline | "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?" rules election law procedure
Edge type: complex/procedural, deadline, source-mechanics, cluster
Flags: none
Hit types: official_resolution_text; deadline_mechanics; legal_or_procedure; cluster_check
URL: open market
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party a...
"Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" Polymarket resolution criteria | "Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" official source deadline | "Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" rules election law procedure