Base daily research budget

Three required investigations every day. This does not lower the betting bar.

CORE_1: Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Lane: SOURCE_FIRST_DEEP_DIVE

Why: Daily source-first deep dive; distinct families and buckets are preferred.

Bucket / family: MIDDLE_EAST / what-will-be-in-a-us-iran-deal-in-2026-20260624150226501

Task: Read the market rules; find the primary official source; estimate fair value; check executable bid/ask and liquidity; record WATCH, PASS, or PAPER with reasons.

Open market

CORE_2: Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Lane: SOURCE_FIRST_DEEP_DIVE

Why: Daily source-first deep dive; distinct families and buckets are preferred.

Bucket / family: MACRO_DATA / fed-decisions-sepdec

Task: Read the market rules; find the primary official source; estimate fair value; check executable bid/ask and liquidity; record WATCH, PASS, or PAPER with reasons.

Open market

GLOBAL_WILDCARD: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Lane: GLOBAL_WILDCARD

Why: Daily rotating wildcard from MIDDLE_EAST; broadens attention beyond the top scores.

Bucket / family: MIDDLE_EAST / us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412

Task: Read the market rules; find the primary official source; estimate fair value; check executable bid/ask and liquidity; record WATCH, PASS, or PAPER with reasons.

Open market