Base daily research budget

Three required investigations every day. This does not lower the betting bar.

CORE_1: Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Lane: SOURCE_FIRST_DEEP_DIVE

Why: Daily source-first deep dive; distinct families and buckets are preferred.

Bucket / family: MACRO_DATA / fed-decisions-juloct-20260617191209856

Task: Read the market rules; find the primary official source; estimate fair value; check executable bid/ask and liquidity; record WATCH, PASS, or PAPER with reasons.

Open market

CORE_2: Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Lane: SOURCE_FIRST_DEEP_DIVE

Why: Daily source-first deep dive; distinct families and buckets are preferred.

Bucket / family: US_LOCAL_LEGAL / michigan-senate-election-winner

Task: Read the market rules; find the primary official source; estimate fair value; check executable bid/ask and liquidity; record WATCH, PASS, or PAPER with reasons.

Open market

GLOBAL_WILDCARD: Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31?

Lane: GLOBAL_WILDCARD

Why: Daily rotating wildcard from LATAM; broadens attention beyond the top scores.

Bucket / family: LATAM / sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-extradited-to-us-by

Task: Read the market rules; find the primary official source; estimate fair value; check executable bid/ask and liquidity; record WATCH, PASS, or PAPER with reasons.

Open market