Prediction Alpha Desk Dashboard

PAPER BOOK UPDATE: LIFECYCLE ACTIONS APPLIED
4Active paper
0Partial runners
+$800.00Active cost
+$959.21Realized
+$229.74Open runner
+$1,188.95Total

Exit / scenario review

11Scenario actions
+$640.9175/25 cash now
+$163.65Rerating exit cash
$0.00Cut-loss cash
22Closed/exited removed
Scenario layer is active-position only. Open full scenario table.
MarketTrade TypePolicyStateCurrentTargetStop ReviewExit fractionRunnerCash nowRealized P/L nowRunner mark
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?RERATING_TESTfull_exit_on_rerating_targetEXIT_NOW0.41650.27720.203610+$163.65+$63.65$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEsell_75_keep_25_runnerPARTIAL_EXIT_NOW0.9960.750.25+$565.91+$190.91+$188.64
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGErecover_stake_keep_runnerPARTIAL_EXIT_NOW0.9960.66270.3373+$500.00+$168.67+$254.55
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEfull_exit_on_exit_reviewEXIT_NOW0.99610+$754.55+$254.55$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEexit_at_80pct_fairEXIT_NOW0.99610+$754.55+$254.55$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEexit_at_90pct_fairEXIT_NOW0.99610+$754.55+$254.55$0.00

Paper positions

MarketSideStatusStakeEntryCurrentRemainActive costRealizedOpen runnerTotalDeadlineURL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?YESCLOSED+$500.000.320.320$0.00+$1,062.50$0.00+$1,062.502026-06-25market
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?YESOPEN+$100.000.25450.41651+$100.00$0.00+$63.65+$63.652026-10-04market
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?YESCLOSED+$100.000.1150.1150$0.00+$191.30$0.00+$191.302026-06-30market
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?YESCLOSED+$250.000.18050.0850$0.00$-51.94$0.00$-51.942026-09-20market
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?YESCLOSED+$250.000.690.910$0.00+$32.61$0.00+$32.612026-12-31market
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?YESCLOSED+$150.000.3030.3030$0.00$-106.93$0.00$-106.932026-08-04market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?NOOPEN+$500.000.660.9961+$500.00$0.00+$254.55+$254.552026-08-31market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?NOOPEN+$100.000.90.91+$100.00$0.00$0.00$0.002026-12-31market
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?YESCLOSED+$200.000.360.360$0.00$-168.33$0.00$-168.332026-08-04market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?YESOPEN+$100.000.130.0151+$100.00$0.00$-88.46$-88.462026-09-10market