Prediction Alpha Desk Dashboard

PAPER BOOK UPDATE: LIFECYCLE ACTIONS APPLIED
4Active paper
0Partial runners
+$800.00Active cost
+$959.21Realized
+$207.71Open runner
+$1,166.92Total

Exit / scenario review

12Scenario actions
+$637.0575/25 cash now
+$147.54Rerating exit cash
$0.00Cut-loss cash
22Closed/exited removed
Scenario layer is active-position only. Open full scenario table.
MarketTrade TypePolicyStateCurrentTargetStop ReviewExit fractionRunnerCash nowRealized P/L nowRunner mark
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?RERATING_TESTfull_exit_on_rerating_targetEXIT_NOW0.37550.27720.203610+$147.54+$47.54$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEsell_75_keep_25_runnerPARTIAL_EXIT_NOW0.9870.750.25+$560.80+$185.80+$186.93
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGErecover_stake_keep_runnerPARTIAL_EXIT_NOW0.9870.66870.3313+$500.00+$165.65+$247.73
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEfull_exit_on_exit_reviewEXIT_NOW0.98710+$747.73+$247.73$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEexit_at_80pct_fairEXIT_NOW0.98710+$747.73+$247.73$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEexit_at_90pct_fairEXIT_NOW0.98710+$747.73+$247.73$0.00

Paper positions

MarketSideStatusStakeEntryCurrentRemainActive costRealizedOpen runnerTotalDeadlineURL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?YESCLOSED+$500.000.320.320$0.00+$1,062.50$0.00+$1,062.502026-06-25market
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?YESOPEN+$100.000.25450.37551+$100.00$0.00+$47.54+$47.542026-10-04market
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?YESCLOSED+$100.000.1150.1150$0.00+$191.30$0.00+$191.302026-06-30market
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?YESCLOSED+$250.000.18050.08750$0.00$-51.94$0.00$-51.942026-09-20market
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?YESCLOSED+$250.000.690.8850$0.00+$32.61$0.00+$32.612026-12-31market
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?YESCLOSED+$150.000.3030.3030$0.00$-106.93$0.00$-106.932026-08-04market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?NOOPEN+$500.000.660.9871+$500.00$0.00+$247.73+$247.732026-08-31market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?NOOPEN+$100.000.90.9151+$100.00$0.00+$1.67+$1.672026-12-31market
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?YESCLOSED+$200.000.360.360$0.00$-168.33$0.00$-168.332026-08-04market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?YESOPEN+$100.000.130.0141+$100.00$0.00$-89.23$-89.232026-09-10market