Prediction Alpha Desk Dashboard

PAPER BOOK UPDATE: LIFECYCLE ACTIONS APPLIED
4Active paper
0Partial runners
+$800.00Active cost
+$959.21Realized
+$918.27Open runner
+$1,877.48Total

Exit / scenario review

17Scenario actions
+$1,185.4175/25 cash now
+$137.72Rerating exit cash
$0.00Cut-loss cash
22Closed/exited removed
Scenario layer is active-position only. Open full scenario table.
MarketTrade TypePolicyStateCurrentTargetStop ReviewExit fractionRunnerCash nowRealized P/L nowRunner mark
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?RERATING_TESTfull_exit_on_rerating_targetEXIT_NOW0.35050.27720.203610+$137.72+$37.72$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEsell_75_keep_25_runnerPARTIAL_EXIT_NOW0.98750.750.25+$561.08+$186.08+$187.03
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGErecover_stake_keep_runnerPARTIAL_EXIT_NOW0.98750.66840.3316+$500.00+$165.82+$248.11
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEfull_exit_on_exit_reviewEXIT_NOW0.987510+$748.11+$248.11$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEexit_at_80pct_fairEXIT_NOW0.987510+$748.11+$248.11$0.00
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?RESOLUTION_EDGEexit_at_90pct_fairEXIT_NOW0.987510+$748.11+$248.11$0.00

Paper positions

MarketSideStatusStakeEntryCurrentRemainActive costRealizedOpen runnerTotalDeadlineURL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?YESCLOSED+$500.000.320.320$0.00+$1,062.50$0.00+$1,062.502026-06-25market
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?YESOPEN+$100.000.25450.35051+$100.00$0.00+$37.72+$37.722026-10-04market
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?YESCLOSED+$100.000.1150.1150$0.00+$191.30$0.00+$191.302026-06-30market
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?YESCLOSED+$250.000.18050.0940$0.00$-51.94$0.00$-51.942026-09-20market
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?YESCLOSED+$250.000.690.910$0.00+$32.61$0.00+$32.612026-12-31market
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?YESCLOSED+$150.000.3030.3030$0.00$-106.93$0.00$-106.932026-08-04market
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?NOOPEN+$500.000.660.98751+$500.00$0.00+$248.11+$248.112026-08-31market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?NOOPEN+$100.000.90.9151+$100.00$0.00+$1.67+$1.672026-12-31market
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?YESCLOSED+$200.000.360.360$0.00$-168.33$0.00$-168.332026-08-04market
Will the European Central Bank make no change to interest rates after its September 2026 meeting?YESOPEN+$100.000.130.951+$100.00$0.00+$630.77+$630.772026-09-10market