| YES | 2026-06-16 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | YES | 0.32 | 85.0% | 166% | High | 2026-06-25 | 8 | 500 | Backers reported more than 1.5M signatures versus roughly 870k required; multiple credible reports say the measure has enough signatures to head to the November ballot. Still aw... | open |
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | | 0.0645 | 7.0% | | Medium | 2026-06-30 | 13 | | Current reporting shows diplomatic activity and US/Russia proposal discussion, but not an official Ukrainian agreement to a US-backed framework. Price around 6% is plausible rat... | open |
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | | 0.3925 | | | Low | 2026-06-30 | 14 | | Strong candidate for automated map-monitoring, but not yet a probability trade until the system can ingest/compare ISW map changes or reliable frontline geodata. | open |
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | | 0.115 | 16.0% | | Low | 2026-06-30 | 13 | | Reporting/background indicates election timing pressure and talk of late-June/July elections, but also that budget passage reduced early-election triggers. Need live official Kn... | open |
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | | 0.1805 | 22.0% | | Medium | 2026-09-20 | 95 | | Recent Berlin polling reported CDU 22%, AfD 18%, Greens 17%, Left 15%, SPD 14%. AfD has a plausible path but is not current favorite; market price around 18% is plausible. | open |
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | | 0.515 | 57.0% | | Medium | 2026-10-04 | 109 | | Recent Reuters-reported polling has Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro after earlier tighter polls. That supports Lula as slight favorite, but not enough for a 10pp edge versus 51.5%. | open |
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | | 0.8545 | 7.0% | | Medium | 2026-10-04 | 109 | | Available polling/news emphasis is on Lula versus Flavio Bolsonaro; Renan Santos appears materially less central in the current national race. NO may be directionally attractive... | open |
| MAYBE | 2026-06-16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | | 0.2545 | 30.0% | | Medium | 2026-10-04 | 109 | | Recent Reuters reporting says Lula has widened a lead over Flavio after earlier Datafolha showed a statistical tie. Current 25% win probability is not obviously mispriced enough... | open |
| SKIP | 2026-06-16 | Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | | 0.12 | 10.0% | | Medium | 2026-08-06 | 50 | | A listed Targoz poll shows Jerri Green 14%, Carnita Atwater 8%, and 62% undecided. Atwater at 12% is plausible; no clear edge. | open |
| SKIP | 2026-06-16 | Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | | 0.165 | 15.0% | | Medium | 2026-08-11 | 55 | | Lindell is a declared candidate in a crowded GOP primary. Current public reporting emphasizes notoriety and uncertainty rather than evidence of primary dominance. No tradeable e... | open |